Scottish Independence Referendum 2

BobbyMac

Are you getting confused between running a deficit (like almost every other country in the world) or actually bankrupt?

BobbyMac

Who is predicting that?

If that happens I may move back to the UK, I'll live like a king. Can't see that happening though.

BobbyMac

Scotland has generated more tax per head than the rest of the UK since 1973
In fact in 1997 the Chief Secretary to the treasury let it slip that Scotland had generated a NET contribution of £27Bn between 1979 & 1997

How far back are you going with the Irish bailout?

I assume you're aware that the IMF bailed out the UK in 1976

BobbyMac

Haggis, Irn Bru & Bagpipe exports

mikeybabes2

You obviously don't follow some of the more rabid right wing journalists and labour MSP's & ex spin doctors if you think there is just a romanticised view of Scottish Nationalism in the media

No one can accurately state what Scotland's defecit would be in the event of Independence as the GERS figures aren't accurate (they where set up by the Scottish Secretary of State, Ian Lang in 1992 who wrote to the COTE Norman Lamont the following)

''I judge that it is just what is needed at present in our campaign to maintain the initiative and undermine the other parties. This initiative could score against them all.''

The EU question was straightforward at the last Ref because an iS would have to apply, however with Brexit and talk of the City of London being allowed special status in the EU as part of the UK, no-one knows precisely how the land lies this time

Re an iS start off economy, would it keep it's share of UK debt in exchange for using Sterling with the BOE as the Lender of last resort - Highly unlikely as it's no true independence and Sterling is currently the 3rd worst performing currency in the world at present

Joining the Euro isn't a requirement of joining the EU (Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Sweden, and the United Kingdom)

So you're left with your own currency pegged to whatever currency you think is the most attractive to your economy, with your own central bank

So no debt, no spending on Trident, no share of NIP, VAT/Tax & Duties collected locally VS huge start up costs & potential trade tarrifs

Now no-one is saying any of the above is easily achievable, however if a small resource rich country with world class medical, food, agricultural, electronics, renewables & oil/gas sectors couldn't be run financially stable and stand on it's own two feet, then there's something wrong somewhere

Member 581642

The latest opinion poll last week (despite being worded terribly) had Independence @ 55% predicated on "Hard Brexit"

mikeybabes2

Well I don't read much of that rubbish - besides my picture of Scottish Nationalists is based on my own experiences of meeting and working with them, and nearly all the them are top chaps and chapesses, very pleasant and hard working. Being nationalistic does not necessarily mean you have an inner urge to invade Poland you know.

The deficit figure I quoted is what the deficit is now - not a prediction of what it would be after independence. I don't think it would improve much if Independence are to happen.

A comment from a politician around 25 years ago does negate the fact that a condition of EU entry is that any deficit is less than 3% of GDP. I did say that Goldman Sachs would be delighted to cook the books for a consideration though.

I think you will find that it is:

Joining the EU - European Union website, the official EU website - European Commission

"Any country that satisfies the conditions for membership can apply. These conditions are known as the ‘Copenhagen criteria’ and include a free-market economy, a stable democracy and the rule of law, and the acceptance of all EU legislation, including of the euro."

Which rather changes the hue of the rest of your argument below.

(It wasn't a requirement when those countries you listed joined, however.)

Well it can't stand on it's own two feet right now, can it ? Not without running a deficit of nearly 10%. Not that the UK is setting the world alight - but that's why we need to get out and trade globally.

BobbyMac

Once again - We already trade globally

When it comes to export from the UK then the EU has little say on that as it's the countries we export to that impose tariffs and restrictions. I do appreciate that these may be influenced by restrictions and duties that the EU apply to imports from those countries.

BobbyMac

You are correct, however, those 'restrictions and duties' which are apparently disastrous when applied to the UK, but seem to be just a minor detail when applied to the rest of the world.

BobbyMac

You're being a tad disingenuous with your 2nd most popular in Scotland tag (they're basically the Unionist protest vote in Scotland and taken Labour's BT supporters with them)

The SNP had more than double the number of Votes than the tories in the 2016 Holyrood Election (in fact Labour had slightly more votes than the tories), however due to the vagaries of the De Hondt voting system, they became the official opposition and the SNP failed to get a working majority (which is tbf the way Holyrood Elections where designed to work)