Scottish Independence Referendum 2

Marshall Mike

So now that the UK has decided to quit the EU, the SNP claim a second Independence referendum is "highly likely".

But what does that mean for the people of Scotland? Are we now going to be forced to choose between the UK and the EU? Will there even be an EU in a few years? Is another referendum even necessary? How would you vote if it does go ahead?

FWIW, I voted to remain in the UK in 2014 and to remain in the EU in 2016. Ironically, I may end up in neither.

Cocksure

I cant see their being one, if the snp where to lose two referendums so close together it would put off the option to leave for the next 50 years at least.

If they could hold it today they might win, but as the earliest would be 2 to 3 years when we will already (or about to be) out of the eu and i'm not so sure they would then.

Cliff

Its the SNP's  reason for being, to get independence. Last time they lost, probably because the economic argument was doubtful.

Now the situation would be even worse. Oil price is still low. But what about trade with England now we are leaving the EU? Can Scotland actually get EU membership? Use the Euro? What will England's trade barriers be?
More to the point...Will Scotland have to enforce trade barriers based on Brussels rules?

Marshall Mike

I'm led to believe Nicola is going to try and negotiate a way for Scotland to remain in the EU, (which will please all of the people who voted to leave). Anyway, I'm thinking she will be looking to broker a deal that we remain in the EU up until the next referendum. Then, if they win we already have our membership and don't need to reapply.

Sonic67

I'd also throw in will there be an EU to join, will others get a vote to leave, and what will the EU be like post UK? More federal? Less? Before we were there throwing cash in. We are going. Will Scotland be a new cash cow?

jason g

most of the economic experts believe that there will be a domino effect and the EU will break up in possibly as an estimation maybe 5 years time.

Jonstone

It is ironic that the UK voting to leave the EU gives the SNP a reason to call for a second referendum but also makes Scottish independence less viable.

The rest of the UK is a far more important trading area to Scotland than the EU is.

The economic arguments would probably lean substantially in favour of Scotland stay in the UK outside the EU rather than joining the EU and adopting the Euro and everything that entails.

However, in theory the economic arguments were for the UK to stay in the EU and we all know how that went, so who knows what the Scots would vote.

TheBlueBrazil

I voted yes in the first referendum but would vote no this time.  No appetite for anything else at this moment in time

Sonic67

IFS warns Scottish deficit has become three times greater than UK's

A fresh economic forecast released to coincide with the day Scotland was to become independent has warned the country’s deficit has deepened, projected to be more than three times greater than the UK.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies figures were released as Nicola Sturgeon launched the first phase of the Scottish National party’s campaign for the Holyrood election in May, urging her party’s 129 candidates to fight harder than ever to secure a second successive majority government.

If Scotland had declared independence on 24 March – the day chosen by then SNP leader Alex Salmond before he lost the 2014 referendum campaign, its population would be facing an overall deficit of £2,850 per head in the 2016/17 financial year compared with £850 per head across the UK, the IFS said.

Scotland's revenues are lagging too far behind its expenditure.

Scotland will need to have another referendum. Win it. Complete the separation from the UK. Go through the EU application. Timescale?

I'd also add the votes for remaining in the EU that Scotland gave were based on people believing it would be as part of the UK. I don't think it will all translate directly. Many will have wanted to be part of a UK that was in the EU.

jason g

i don't know how scottish voters on here feel about nicola sturgeon but i have always felt she is a danger to not only the scottish voters but to the UK as a whole, she seems to only have this scotland only agenda and that could cost people in scotland as it could the UK as a whole, i don't want scotland to leave but that would be their choice and i would respect that.