Time for Farage to "take a break"?

Rasczak

Having seen some of the party literature, I'm a lot more confident on the EU referendum. You also have to remember, the Conservatives have a majority now - so the pro-EU Cameron will decide the question, whether the 'stay in camp gets yes or no, the date of the referendum, who votes etc. Even though we expected UKIP to fail at the GE, a minority Tory Government propped up by two or three UKIP MPs could have been dangerous. But Cameron now has a free hand.

Furthermore with slapstick Farage as the figurehead of the 'out!' campaign and immigration, I think all the pointers are good. But yes, if my preference certainly was not to have a referendum - it is a wasted effort and the benefits of the EU are difficult to explain to a broad audience. There are benefits as well - a decisive victory for the In! campaign will set back the anti-EU movement for decades.

Good, because we are going to stay.

Enki

Unfortunately, this is going to be the case, I get the sense with many people, when the choice is drawn in the sand, not that it will be clear distinctive line, even if we had referendum on Monday, we are not going to cross it.

We are too far into the project now, its the death throws of cultural identity knowing its going to be swallowed up by something bigger, some parts will remain but mainly mutated. I think its our own defined tribalism in this nationalism and its been played wonderfully by pro European and business, we see ourselves as English, Scottish, Northern Irish or Welsh, the rest of world have been calling us European for decades, I think religion has something similar, like all ideology's, purgatory!

hdsport

Well we had two referendums in the last parliament maybe not on the EU but it's the principle of a yes/no question vs a multi party election with marginal seats etc.  YouGov's final prediction was 54% yes for Scotland so not too bad (-1%) considering the margin of error.  

We can also be fairly sure that the pro-Brexit campaign will need a decent lead before polling as people tend to give the vote for the status quo a bump on polling day. This is something that can get missed the in the final polls.

As for GE's whilst they have had tendancy to over estimate Labour vs Tory it's only been 1992/2015 where they've got it completely wrong 'recently'.

Sonic67

And as I said you have to remember Cameron isn't really an asset. Some will vote opposite to him for no other reason than they think he's a posh Tory dick. As for the rest unless the question is a row of double negatives it makes little odds.
Yes you said exactly the same on the Scottish referendum. How's that going?

Sonic67

And? Presumably people voted accordingly. If it comes to it defence tends to be well down the list but I remember a big fight over Trident kicking off between the Tories and Labour/SNP as well. It was a long election campaign there's time to cover everything. You'd prefer it to not be discussed or matter? People are capable of being concerned about a lot of things and prioritising their support accordingly. Do you think only certain issues should be discussed? That the electorate should just accept we are in the EU and that's it?

That the other issues never featured? Where were you?

Incidentally I note again you haven't actually linked to the source you refer to so I looked anyway. I can see why you didn't link to it as your point is rather dubious.

If it is "Very/Fairly important" then immigration is down the list (though still in the 80s!), if it is "Very important" that is being asked then immigration is third. Either way it seems like a big electoral issue. Naughty TB.

The link:

NHS 'most important issue' suggests BBC/Populus poll - BBC News

As we have just seen many regard it as "very important" 60% or "very/fairly important" 83% (your source).

The main headline yesterday was that immigration had gone up by 300,000. In one year. Essentially we need to build another Coventry. Each year. You don't think that doesn't impact everything else? You don't think people aren't concerned by it?
So you now accept it is an issue?
So you accept it is an issue for some people?
So you accept it is an issue for some people?
So you are saying it is an ongoing issue...
And for years net migration tended to be around 30,000. It is now 300,000.

See the difference?

This country needed 300,000 last year? Did we build enough houses, hospitals, schools, transport etc last year?
And with so many now using it? The population went up by 300,000 in one year. Did we increase the amount of doctors/nurses/hospitals by the same amount? With migration increasing by 300,000 a year it will/has fallen over.
And a random stat to finish. Relevance?

We shouldn't discuss the EU due to the need to have foreign managers for our wealthy premier league clubs? This must be the most random reason to stay in the EU ever.

Aside from anything else the idea is that we need to manage immigration like other countries do. If we need a person with the particular skills to organise 11 men to kick a ball then we can still get that from abroad anyway. The idea is we manage migration and bring in what we need. Whether it is a doctor or a football manager!

Sonic67

Which is a careful selection of one poll from the many. It was the rogue polls which suddenly resulted in Scotland getting a lot of concessions from the various party leaders. If you like that may have then led to the final poll and the result, or it may have been the ratio stayed the same throughout and no concessions needed to be made at all.
My point was more that the referendum should be held at all.

If it comes to it if people think we will stay in anyway, why the fear of having a referendum? I have said numerous times parties only hold referendums when they are sure of the result. Cameron is giving one knowing he will probably win it and hoping that afterwards UKIP will be put to bed. A few in here are now starting to hope that too. The same happened with the Scottish referendum. Oh.
Again selective. 2015 polling was meant to be a result of the lesson learned before. There were months of polls from several different sources. I would count them but there's just too many.

hdsport

I wasn't saying polling is perfect far from it but just that there is a difference between an election and a refendum.  Yes the Better Together campaign panicked after that one rogue poll but that doesn't mean you discount all polling.  Nor does what ever went wrong for (almost) all of the GE campaign mean that you reject all future polling.

Some votes are more difficult to call than others,  today we have one in Ireland and it seems that the Yes side as expected have won.

As for referendums themselves when they have potential economic impacts people don't like the uncertainty.  Personally if I was running in the GE I would have said to people I think we are better in than out so if you want a referendum or you want to leave vote for somebody else, but then I'm not a politician.

Cliff

It is by no means certain. If it was, then UKIP as a political party with 4m votes would not exist. And before someone pipes up with the line about seats in Parliament, start worrying.. The referendum is about votes!

IronGiant

And that's an argument for staying in the EU ?  

Trollslayer

*pins a "Junior Evil Genius" badge on IG's chest*