Theresa May has resigned, who to lead the Tories now?

Cliff

Ok, with that link in context, yes that is what they said. Don’t quite get why you call my response trolling.

So they are wrong. The Conservative party do have a mandate. Both for Brexit and for forming a government.

richp007

Labour calling for a no confidence vote is old news. They have threatened before, they have done it before, and they never succeed. With a new leader, the Conservatives will have new direction, and you would have to see how the party performs over six months or so before anyone can conclude they don't have any confidence.
As for McDonnell, he just wants an election for any reason.
I would really like to know from any Labour supporter why they think their party can open up negotiations again and get a better deal with the EU. (I am not talking about a second referendum cop out)

Cliff

From a Labour supporter, they can't and they won't.

But your very last sentence is becoming as increasingly likely a possibility as No Deal. These for me are all there is left now.

I read yesterday amongst all the May song and dance, about how any incoming EU Commissioner is likely to want Brexit resolved immediately (if not already), as they would not wish it to be the defining instrument of their new term. It's something very few now want to muddy their hands with. Even just a little.

And even with Boris at the helm, I still don't think Parliament has the stomach to go through with a No Deal. Certainly just revoking Article 50 is out of the question. So without a deal - and any to be negotiated - having a choice between No Deal and Remaining is all we have left.

Also as I've said many times before, without a GE and a majority to work with, I can't see the deadlock in the HoC being broken.

Obviously a lot depends on the new Tory leader, but I certainly wouldn't be betting too early on Boris. Frontrunners don't always take the mantle, and as a few political commentators have suggested in the last 24hrs, Boris is more than capable of ruining Boris. So it's by no means as clear cut as some people would have us believe.

richp007

So what are you saying exactly? If there was a General election and we got Corbyn for Christmas, and say he had a good working majority, where would he take us?
Labour always said they would respect the Brexit vote and voted for Article 50.
They only have a few options if they can't renegotiate.

1)Use the Withdrawal deal which has been signed off by the EU.
2)Leave without a specific deal
3)Call a another referendum and hope we remain.

crashcris

For reference No Deal has been taken off the table - for now - and we can't negotiate the WA any further. I'm sure that agreement also dies with May, so for now we have no WA. And are unlikely to negotiate one again. That ship has sailed. And sunk.

That leaves two choices (Go No Deal or revoke). However neither are going to win a majority in the HoC currently.

I also don't believe a GE win would currently give a majority to any party. So we'll still be where we are now, and as the next deadline looms are we going to require a further extension? Yes.

Just how long is it going to go beyond that, before everyone realises the only way a decision gets made is if the public are asked again. A simple two answer question, Do we remain, or do we leave without a deal? And of course this time it has to be written into law (however that's done), that parliament doesn't get to choose whether to enact the results, or even do any discussion around the result. Whoever is the PM at the time just enacts it.

(I've read it on here a few times about how parliament didn't have to enact the referendum result, it was just a manifesto pledge to do so. Well this time it needs to be more than that).

The problem is and will remain (pardon the pun), that really even with a majority and a party being whipped, I cannot ever see there ever being the numbers to agree to taking us out without a deal. Too many would rebel. And if we can't negotiate anything else, what do we do?

It's a question I've asked on here many times, and I always seem to get the same stupid answer - we had a vote, leave won. Yes it did. But how's that worked out so far?

Even though it feels like it, this cannot go on forever. A solution has to be reached, and I can't see any other solution other than another public vote. Whether people like it or not.

springtide

I think we'll have the answer to a potential referendum tomorrow night.
The way I interpret the results will be as follows-

Vote to repeal article 50 - Total= SDP SNP Greens Change UK 1/2 Others.
Vote to leave-------------- Total= Brexit Party Conservatives DUP Labour 1/2 Others.

No "Deal" is going to be acceptable and voted through so a "No Deal" exit will have to be enacted, and that will satisfy the greatest proportion of the public. At that point the Conservatives and Labour will win back their supporters from Farage and we'll finally get to see if the sky falls in and plagues of locusts blight the land.

richp007

1

Stating that with a Leave Tory as PM we can just leave with no deal is like stating with a Remain Tory as PM we can ignore the referendum and Remain.

The crux is what will break the deadlock in the HoC?

Maybe a GE might mix the MPs up a bit so there is a different mix in the HoC for voting, but even with a manifesto from any party stating we will leave with no deal or remain etc, we are still stick with the HoC voting as far as I can tell.

richp007

As Brexiters love to say about many things Remainers say, that's just pure speculation. Whilst public favour may well still be in favour of leaving, I wouldn't say the same for leaving on a No Deal. I know quite a few folk who voted to leave, but don't want to without a deal.

All Brexiters being united is just a myth.

Plus I don't think Parliament has the guts to see us out without a deal. And without a majority - which is where we still are - how does it happen anyway? It hasn't thus far.

The results of the EU Elections are no doubt important in a few days, but I don't think the Farage effect is going to be anywhere near as powerful as Brexiters think it's going to be. Especially now May has trumped him and got in her resignation first.

springtide

Exactly and where is it getting us. Sodding nowhere is the answer.

Crafty

How come Leave are taking the Labour and Conservatives votes?

I thought all Tory and Conservatives Brexiteers voted for the Brexit party, so surely whatever is left is for Remain?



Oh sorry my mistake, that election has nothing to do with how Brexit will be decided, as in votes in the HoC