Well the first thing is that you cannot refute my claim, it's not a claim, it's a point of fact, between Blair and Brown they have given this country its longest period of uninterrupted period of economic growth in modern history.
Exit polls say hung parliament...
...but in a way that implies a long night.
Steve W
Fair enough, refute is probably the wrong word.I agree, it's a fact.My point was based upon their method for achieving it, which in my opinion, the last couple of years have shown that there were some grave errors in Brown's economic policy.
In any case, first exit polls are in:
Con 307 Lab 255 Lib 59 Oth 29. Lib's actually down which is a surprise I think.
Dont think apportionment of seats from Sky exit poll will be accurate, IMO Although, Anyone else think it will be a hung Parliament?
How accurate have exit polls been in the past?
If what I've been hearing all day is true, I think it will be a hung parliament.
I'm certainly no expert on how this process works, but from the exit poll, the Lab and Lib seats do not add up to an overall majority,I'm assuming that could be quite significant and would make the Con's favourite to be able to form a government.
Any experts on this, I'm intrigued to know how it all works ?
I think the Conservatives will do better in the marginal seats against Labour than the overall swing, but worse against the Lib Dems.
How do you balance that?Currently guesswork.
But my guess is a hung parliament.
Note, the exit poll guesses:
CON: 307
LAB: 255
LD: 59
OTH: 29
LAB LD = 314 (more than CON).314 PC SNP SDLP probably = >326, whereas CON UNIONISTS probably = <326.
But only just.It's that tight.
Anyone fancy staying up until the result from Thirsk & Malton? data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7
Steve W
I think you have to factor in the 'ShyLabour' vote, like the 'ShyTory' vote of 1992
Last time fairly accurate AFAIK. in 1992 way out.
However, IMO, i think this election is very unique in the way its paned out with the the TV debates etc and poll of 17,000 will not accurately reflect the votes of millions.
Only the next few hours will tell.data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7
I think lib dems will get more seats than exit poll figure.