AVForums general election after the event poll

irgsefton

Well the first thing is that you cannot refute my claim, it's not a claim, it's a point of fact, between Blair and Brown they have given this country its longest period of uninterrupted period of economic growth in modern history.

Pecker

Exit polls say hung parliament...

...but in a way that implies a long night.

Steve W

lee_d_m

Fair enough, refute is probably the wrong word.  I agree, it's a fact.  My point was based upon their method for achieving it, which in my opinion, the last couple of years have shown that there were some grave errors in Brown's economic policy.

In any case, first exit polls are in:

Con 307 Lab 255 Lib 59 Oth 29.   Lib's actually down which is a surprise I think.

A Legal Beagle

Dont think apportionment of seats from Sky exit poll will be accurate, IMO Although, Anyone else think it will be a hung Parliament?

pandemic

How accurate have exit polls been in the past?
If what I've been hearing all day is true, I think it will be a hung parliament.

lee_d_m

I'm certainly no expert on how this process works, but from the exit poll, the Lab and Lib seats do not add up to an overall majority,  I'm assuming that could be quite significant and would make the Con's favourite to be able to form a government.

Any experts on this, I'm intrigued to know how it all works ?

Pecker

I think the Conservatives will do better in the marginal seats against Labour than the overall swing, but worse against the Lib Dems.

How do you balance that?  Currently guesswork.

But my guess is a hung parliament.

Note, the exit poll guesses:

CON: 307
LAB: 255
LD: 59
OTH: 29

LAB   LD = 314 (more than CON).  314   PC   SNP   SDLP probably = >326, whereas CON   UNIONISTS probably = <326.

But only just.  It's that tight.

Anyone fancy staying up until the result from Thirsk & Malton?

Steve W

pandemic

I think you have to factor in the 'ShyLabour' vote, like the 'ShyTory' vote of 1992

A Legal Beagle

Last time fairly accurate AFAIK. in 1992 way out.

However, IMO, i think this election is very unique in the way its paned out with the the TV debates etc and poll of 17,000 will not accurately reflect the votes of millions.

Only the next few hours will tell.

reddevil63

I think lib dems will get more seats than exit poll figure.