Tory manifesto: Adult Social Care bill query

IronGiant

And this is a new thing?

fluxo

Who knows. It looks disorganized to me. They've had years to put this together and they're sort of saying they'll try to think something up after the election. That's being nice to them, i.e., that's assuming they're not deliberately concealing their intentions.

doug56hl

Most perhaps but so for many.
1 in 7 pensioners (1.6 million or 14% of pensioners in the UK) live in poverty, defined as having incomes of less than 60% of median income after housing costs. A further 1.2 million pensioners have incomes just above the poverty line (more than 60% but less than 70% of median income).
And 2.4 million households in the country are assessed as living in fuel poverty.

The biggest living costs after housing are food and fuel. A basic State Pension for a single person is just £8K. £200 is 2.5% loss of income. Even a £200 annual payment can help a lot with the eat or be warm choice especially when heating costs have risen so much in the last few years: 5% to 10% year on year and worse if unable to get in on a good price fix (requires internet and able to pay by DD, no such luxury of price fixes if using a slot meter).

If...
10% of 13 million is 1.3 million voters.
Using the below and just above poverty line figure you have potentially 2.8 million affected who may mind not getting it, especially as all the other parties have stated they will keep it.
It's a Tory gamble on who will blink first.

IronGiant

The Tories have committed to protecting pensioners in Fuel Poverty.  Won't around half of your 2.8 million still be getting the winter fuel allowance ?

Tell me what proportion of pensioners you think will be affected and what proportion of them might change their vote as a result?   Bear in mind only 45% of over 60's voted Tory last time, so you can ignore the other 55%  (unless they are likely to switch to Tory).

fluxo

On the bright side, if you get dementia, you may forget you ever had a house.

IronGiant

Care for the elderly needs some serious work and money thrown at it.  I think they may have made a big mistake in thinking they could sneak in major changes while everyone was voting for a stable government to get the best Brexit deal.

Cliff

Rightly or wrongly, if they lose the election it will be because of this.

kbfern

I would like to know whether this was a TM initiative or one of her inner circle.

Whilst as I have said previously I agree with the principle of paying towards social care it has been badly thought through and presented and IF they do loose the election it will be the biggest gaffe in modern political history.

I do think however the conservatives still will win with a 50-60 seat majority.

doug56hl

That is uncertain.
However this would still leave 1.4 million odd affected.
As I don't work for a poll prediction company I won't. We will know soon enough by the voting results.

Not sure where you are getting the 45% from. Yougov shows around 53% at 60, rising to 58% at around State Pension Age and increasing to 70% at age 80. I would like to see a similar chart based on voting intentions in late May/early June 2017 i.e. post Tory manifesto publication before I gave predictions as to a result...

                                                                       

IronGiant

a website not making predictions but who voted in the 2015 election.