Scottish Independence Referendum 2

Sonic67

This might be a last throw of the dice. Lose one referendum is bad, lose two in the bounce and it will be a long time till you could ever propose another.

Could the Scottish Parliament stop the UK from leaving the EU? - BBC News

She is seeking to make slow, steady progress. In particular, she is not anxious to drive forward to an instant referendum on independence.

Why not? Because she fears she might lose it. The big challenges she faced in September 2014 were: the economy, the currency and membership of the EU. The third factor has now altered somewhat, positing the prospect of indyref2.

However, items one and two remain. What would independence do to the economy? What currency would an independent Scotland use?

Further, still, it is possible that Brexit might encourage furious Scots - and many are decidedly angry - to move in greater numbers towards independence.

Equally, it might make some think that the constitutional world is already scary and uncertain enough without revisiting the prospect of independence at this stage.

Ms Sturgeon, as she has made amply plain, wants more evidence that the people of Scotland are ready this time round to back independence. So she wants time. She needs time.

Hence, partly, the search for alternatives. The search for any means by which Scotland can maintain EU links.

To be clear again, this is a genuine, governmental search. Ms Sturgeon is not bluffing or deploying guile. She, authentically, wants ideas as to how to proceed.

kav

Personally I think independence would fly through in the current environment if another referendum were called. Though it would be a reactionary decision. The last time, many many people voted No on the basis that it would damage the long standing ties with the Union, and in turn the threat that Scotland would not be allowed to join the EU was continually held over the country.

Anecdotal of course, but I have had lots of conversations with friends, family and colleagues since 4am on Friday, and the overwhelming feedback is that on the back of Friday's result, just over half of English voters have shown that what matters to England is England and England alone, and as a result all those threats about Scotland not being able to be in the EU are now completely redundant. Many view it as having had the rug pulled from under them just when they thought the rug had been firmly fixed in place. The loyalty they had been asked to give in 2014 - and duly did - was not reciprocated.

I don't know how possible it is, but if Sturgeon et al could negotiate with the EU to gain membership in the event that they became independent (something I don't necessarily think the EU would shoot down, given they will want the English to feel pain for the referendum result), that would be sufficient for Scots to overwhelmingly vote Yes for independence.

On the other side of the coin, you have the 52% hoping the entire institution fails, and their view will be Scotland would be foolish to tether herself to a (in their eyes) dying entity, and would be better to instead remain as part of the Union - albeit doing as she's told by those who know best.

It's right to hold off on making decisions just now. Emotions are running too high, and not enough info is available, for anyone to be making good decisions.

IronGiant

Presumably all these people you spoke to were Remainers then? I'm struggling to think why a Leaver would think like that.  I'd be very interested if wrong though

Delvey

If the UK would of voted remain and Scotland leave would she still be in the same boat? Would she call a referendum so Scotland leave the EU and the UK Seriously doubt it.

kav

Yes, everyone was a Remain supporter, probably not that surprising given almost 2/3 of the country supported Remain. Though they were split down the middle on the Scottish referendum.

Ambient Fish

If it was up to me I would wait to see what the un-elected UK civil servants manage to negotiate with the EU and the English reaction when they find out exactly what the new deal looks like. Seems to me that there has been a lot of back peddling  from the brexit side on immigration and the final destination of the putative £350m a week to name but 2 of the major reasons for brexit.

How about giving us a referendum on some other issues like he monarchy, proportional representation and many other things we have never had a real say on, at least our EU membership had been the subject of a referendum so do we now get more say? I doubt it very much.

RiceRocket

The UK-EU import/export figures are well known but does anyone here with relevant bookmarked repository know what the Scot-EU figures are?
Also the Barnett(?) formula thing, what are the figures there? I could be wrong but in my head Scotland (and Wales) is pretty much subsidised by England?

m4rky_m4rk

Just heard on BBC that Wales is also now talking about independence. New thread?

edit... instead of pontificating I started one anyway
Welsh Independence Referendum 1

Sloppy Bob

2013 figures per head - Gained from different sources, not guaranteed 100%

Ireland gets more than Scotland. (Ireland £10,876)
Scotland gets more than Wales.  (Scotland £10,152)
Wales gets more than England.   (Wales £9709)
                                                (England £8529)

However due to the vast majority of people living in England, if everyone got the same then it wouldn't even be a couple of hundred pounds per person for England over what they have now as the UK average would be £8788

It is unfair, but by the same token some regions of England receive far more than others as well. What has to be taken into account is the rurality and the infrastructure required to deliver essential services to locals all over the UK. It's a lot harder to provide urgent medical care in the valleys of Wales or islands of Scotland than it is in a large town or city, spending the same across the country wouldn't be fair either, it just needs to be calculated better.

It is definitely something that needs addressing but people who are spiteful about and use it as a means of argument for "getting rid of Scotland" are just thinking short term.

This is quite a decent read although it doesn't take into account the current economic depression in the price of oil - Yes, Scotland does receive an unfair share of public spending. Probably | Coffee House

logiciel

The UK needs to allow or disallow a Scottish referendum, so the whole thing is a waste of discussion time!