French and European Elections

Cliff

Just like we have seen in the UK and the US, the French have had enough of the old guard and don't like the direction their country is going.

Unemployment is way too high.
Companies do not have employment flexibility. Too expensive to employ new young people.
35 hour week - nice but not competitive.
The civil service is bloated.
Recent waves of immigration numbers have created many social problems resulting in demands for controls.
The rise of Islam in the country is not something many French want.
Muslim integration: many say not compatible with French culture. Controversy over laws banning the Burkini, and head veil.
Terrorism caused the deaths of 235 people over the last 18 months- more than the previous 100 years.
Many French see their national identity being marginalised.
Pension structure very generous- but not economically sustainable. Calls to raise the age to 65.

So Socialist party, and President Francois Hollande is very unpopular at the moment. We don't know if he will stand.
The right have Mr Fillon after beating Mr Juppe.
We also have Marine Le Pen on the far right - and she wants out of the EU.


Mr Fillon (a Thatcherite) looks like the favourite, having surprised everyone with his recent success.
Who ever wins, there is change in the air....

EarthRod

Agreed - there is a change in the air.

It would seem the battle next year will be between the right (Fillon) and the far right (Le Pen).

The socialist left appears to be going through a period of disintegration.

This is all looking a little familiar , but maybe too early to tell.

Marv

I hope Le Pen gets in so the great un cucking can continue. We're on a roll at the moment with the Brexit vote(pending) and The Donald getting into the White House.

I truly hope there are no brakes on this train.

                                                                                                                                       

domtheone

Yup.  If Le Pen gets in, it should bring about an end to the EU as we know it all the more sooner.

Better than death by 1000 cuts.

There's an important vote in Italy in a week or so's time too.

Hopefully that will be another small nail in the coffin too.

pandemic

Brexit and Trump didn't surprise me. However, Le Penn winning would be a surprise and I don't believe it will happen.
If people remember, this French election is virtually a repeat of 2002 when Le Penn (father of current FN leader) went up against Chirac. Chirac won over 80% of the vote, and the head2head polls show everyone beating Le Penn by a considerable margin. Fillon is likely to win by over 60% of the vote if he's up against Le Penn.

Then again if Le Penn wins, I'm going to be even more happy about Brexit. As I don't believe she will take France out of the EU and that over the next decade Europe could see a resurgence of the Far-right. They are certainly gaining traction, Austria is likely to vote in a Far-right leadership before the year is out after the previous election results were annulled. AfD in Germany have come out of nowhere didn't even exist 5 years ago and look like they will be the 3rd largest party in 2017. Golden Dawn in Greece who are self confessed neo-nazis. Far-left in Spain. It's crazy!

tapzilla2k

It may or may not do that. Depends on what happens in Germany, Merkel loses power then everything is up in the air. France is in a lot worse shape than we are, so if Fillion wins I expect he'll want a tough Brexit that favours France and to muscle into the City of London's business. Though I guess if Le Pen wins, she'll go ahead and do whatever it is she has planned regardless of the economic costs. Which I believe would be Frexit and or a Euro Exit. Either would trigger a crisis for the EU.

If the EU fails, it will happen very quickly and not for the reasons we have been
speculating over most likely. The Italian Banking System crashing the Eurozone could cause
the EU to fail. But it would have to go utterly pearshaped for it to happen.

It's on Sunday, lots of ramifications if the No vote wins (final polling had it 5 points ahead).
Spanish banks might wobble - Italian Referendum to Test Europe’s Weakling Banks

The interesting thing about the Italian vote will be to see if it follows the North/South divide in Italy or both a majority in the North and South both vote no. Could indicate how rocky an Italian election could be.

I don't know why people are so worked up about the EU failing. For all we know a Federal Union of European States could emerge from the ashes

tapzilla2k

Hollande is apparently not seeking a second term, going by a sky news app alert.

Cliff

Yep.
A poll yesterday suggested Hollande would get only 7% of the vote. So he pulled out before being humiliated. The French are not happy with the direction the socialist have taken them. Unlikely to see any serious contender from them now.

Its basically down to centre-right candidate Francois Fillon and far-right leader Marine Le Pen.

Cliff

I changed the thread title so other elections could be included.
The next big one is the Austrian election. If you remember, the last time they had an election they got the answer wrong (Aclass to comment?).

This time, there is also a serious chance the result may not be to the EU's liking. Norbert Hofer may win. He says "I am just a normal guy - I am not far-right."

'Mr Sellner and his team of provocateurs say they are fighting "mass-Islamisation" and made their point by placing a giant black veil on the statue of an 18th century Austrian Empress, called Maria Theresa.
The problem in our society is that every right-wing politician who criticises immigration is literally Hitler and we are fed up with this.'

Austrian election hopeful rides Trump wave

robel

Record numbers of Jews fleeing France too and not just because of the far right.....