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I doubt that very much. The Tories face massive challenges before they even get to 2020. Whatever the result of the EU vote is, it will be a dangerous time for the Tory parties unity. They could very well become as split as they were under John Major.
I think you won't see many U-Turns from Corbyn. He has something Cameron and co lack - Conviction rightly or wrongly depending on where you stand on the issues.
And so did the Major and Blair Governments, it's what bought about the good Friday Agreement. All done behind closed doors.
If the Tories become cocky and complacent then they risk losing votes to other parties (not necessarily labour) - http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2015/07/daniel-hannan-mep-a-corbyn-victory-would-be-bad-for-the-conservatives.html
It's not much of a surprise a lot of them said they wouldn't serve under Corbyn. Looks like Angela Eagle might get the Shadow Chancellor job or it might be Andy Burnham. Dan Jarvis is not going to serve under Corbyn. If things go as badly as the media predict, then Jarvis is free of the Corbyn taint and can then have a shot at the leadership if he decides to go for it.
If that explodes into the scandal it's been threatening to become (full blown constitutional crisis not seen since Cromwell got his war on), then we will likely see a lot of MP's being booted out of Office across the Political spectrum. I would say if it's bad as the allegations indicate then we might well see a General Election before 2020. But until the Police bite the bullet and arrest current MP's and Lords it will remain lurking in the shadows. It will damage the Tory and Labour Parties, in different ways.
I guess 2020 will be Hope vs Tory Pragmatism/ideologicalhardons. |
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