What is the definition of ‘the will of the people’?

fluxo

I’m not completely sure, but I wouldn’t have thought so. The EU elections aren’t exclusively about Brexit in the same way a Brexit referendum would be.

Sonic67

And a pretty rubbish argument from you Fluxo.
Think you miss the point. If some polls are wrong how do you know which ones are correct?

All polls are guesswork. They are based on a few thousand meant to represent around 40 million voters, and have been wrong numerous times in the past. By their nature they aren't trusted hence why we still have voting.

A poll comes out tomorrow. How do you know if it is accurate?

Even if it is, it only says what the view is now.

Actual votes take place months in the future after debates, campaigns etc. It's one thing to say today how you will vote, it's a different matter as to how you will actually vote.

Sonic67

Would you say that if the Libdems or Chuk turn out to be the largest party?

IronGiant

Note. In some ways the referendum vote was easier, in other ways harder.

Polling for a general election is harder as there are multiple possibilities because there is multiple options. For a referendum on the EU there was only ever two choices, "leave" or "remain." That's it. A little complicated as there was little previous examples but even so it was only ever two options. Even with that most polling suggested Remain with the result being leave. Even with no polling at all I can be right 50% of the time.

fluxo

I would have thought this one would be, but I take your point.

Sonic67

If some planes crash, how do you know which ones don’t?

Do you give up flying because of the uncertainty?

Of course, if planes crashed frequently, you would be unwise to fly. As for polls: it’s not clear to me how often they go wrong. You’ve provided some examples of polls that were off, but it doesn’t answer the general question.

fluxo

These elections will be about brexit.

What else could they be about? You think people will be voting for MEPs to actually exercise any of the little influence they have on EU policy?

Sonic67

Then if you want to go off public opinion and go with that, then the case for third, fourth, fifth and sixth referenda is stronger. IMO.

No problem if you are going with another vote, based on public opinion or whatever reason you are pretending it's for, but don't stop with just one otherwise it's just you wanting one vote until it's the "right" decision.

If you are advocating constant referenda then fine.

fluxo

No, not at all. I think a single final vote would suffice once the MPs have made a decision.

Wanting more than one of something doesn’t imply you’d want infinitely many.

I think I’ll recognise you if I see you now. You’ll be the one with hundreds of unfilled trouser legs

Sonic67

You examine the reasons why they crash and design it into other planes so they don't.
No because this is a strawman argument. Statistically you are more likely to be in a crash, driving to the airport than being in an actual plane crash. Given that plane crashes are rare and even deaths from actual plane crashes are also rare then it's an extreme example. Do you have a good example?
Not for you. Others accept they are flawed. Again if they were regarded as accurate we wouldn't have the actual voting.

In the same way horse racing pundits are flawed and so we still have the actual horse races. It's all guesswork before the race based on a possible probability and slightly better guesswork than I could come up with, but still guesswork. If you want to talk about how accurate it is, ask a gambler.