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There will be some Tories who want to stay in the Single Market by whatever means necessary. And there is a distinct difference between ardent Brexiteers and those like Anna Soubry who acknowledges that we are leaving, but doesn't want the Tory Party to do it in a reckless way i.e. destroy their brand of fiscal responsibility. The splits over Europe in the Conservative Party haven't really changed all that much since the 90's. There will be certain moments in the Brexit process where the Tories could split. We are early into the process, the third reading of the repeal bill will probably be a lot tougher than the first, but I expect it will pass with significant concessions from Government to get it through both houses of Parliament.
Feed the various opinion polls into the electoral calculator tools and you'll see Corbyn's either on course to be the leader of the biggest party or a leader with a slim majority. I did see a poll the other day that shows he's made a small inroad into the older voter demographic.
If Brexit goes spectacularly wrong, we'd likely see both Labour and Tory Parties breaking down entirely and new parties emerging. The Party Brands might be too damaged, beware of what happened to the Liberal Party of old.
One day, the Conservatives will do the same in regards to Thatcher. They've whipped the Thatcherite horse for all it's worth now. They need to come up with new ideas and a new offer for people if they want to remain relevant. It seems we are shifting from the centre right to the centre left.
If we were in ordinary times, you'd be correct. We are not, nobody really knows how Brexit is going to play out. It could be fine and the status quo continues or Politics as we know it may break down.
You go where the Party membership is and where the votes are. The divide over Brexit is between the Young and the Old.
It doesn't really, if he's anything he's a stalking horse candidate. That's how these Tory contests go, unless a leader resigns. If they did get Rees-Mogg as leader ? I doubt he'd be popular for very long once people start looking at his character in depth. He'd probably play very badly against Corbyn's man of the people act. I would say the Tories are where they were before Thatcher dragged them along kicking and screaming into power - Rudderless and policies that don't really inspire people all that much.
The only viable Tory Leader I can see is Ruth Davidson, but as she's not an MP she's out of the picture. Unless she's parachuted into a safe seat. |
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Author: Cliff
25-11-2019 22:02:38
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