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Technically anyone can make money from Brexit (a) if they choose to short Sterling (or place a spread bet on Sterling declining, or buy a put option, or buy assets in dollars, etc.) and (b) as a result of Brexit Sterling falls further.
However, being a short seller (or a spread better) is a risky business. If the market for Sterling moves in the opposite direction then you will lose heavily.
Personally, I have absolutely no problem with people taking short positions on Sterling ahead of Brexit. They are essentially risking their (or their clients money if they are a fund manager or hedge fund) on a guess of a future outcome. Such short sellers could lose money from such a bet. If they do make money then they are making their money from the person who took the opposite bet. A short seller needs someone to buy what they are selling at the price the two parties agree. If everyone feels that Sterling is likely to fall then the short seller will only make money if they find someone to trade with who believes that Sterling will fall less than the short seller does. Short sellers often make a loss.
It is important to remember that if short sellers do make money on Sterling it costs the person they are trading with but not the country as a whole. Some of the press stories about short selling of Sterling seem to imply that if the short sellers make £1 billion profit then somehow it is the Government or the UK as a whole that lose £1 billion. That is simply not the case. Maybe they are linking this situation with Sterling falling out of the ERM. George Soros made a billions by essentially short selling Sterling - which did fall significantly. (He did not do anything wrong - he just guessed correctly and had the funds behind him to make a fortune.) This did cost the UK government billions because they were trying to support Sterling and raise its price by repeatedly buying more and more of it. The Government lost money because they bought Sterling at a high price and later had to sell it at a lower price. The Government did not directly lose money to Soros. |
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