Playstation 4k

BAMozzy

Of people are buying a Neo thinking its 'resetting' the PS4 generation so to speak and that its going to last 4-5yrs as a 'new' generation console normally would, then more fool them. This isn't that different in essence from releasing a 'slim'. Just because a PS5 is released, that doesn't automatically mean that the PS4/Neo is obsolete either. There is always a cross-over phase and no doubt a lot of the big third party games will get simultaneous release on both PS4 and PS5. It maybe that a few games (maybe Cyberpunk 2077 for example - not saying it won't at all but drawing comparison between this and Witcher 3) may not run on PS4 and therefore won't get a 'Neo' release either - its not like they will have different PS4 and Neo disks. I can't see Sony gamers being happy to lose out on certain features - like CoD:BO3 on PS3 - because the PS4 can't run these where the Scorpio and PC get them. I can't see Sony back tracking or following Nintendo's Expansion Pack or 3DS example - where some games won't work unless you have the 'right' PS4 (Neo).

I can see the advantage of releasing a next step every 2-3 years but the fact that Sony have insisted the Neo is just a PS4 and that it won't get anything that won't also run on the PS4 indicates that we will see a PS5 - as long as there is still interest in console gaming in the traditional of course. Its something they may do with the 'next' Playstation - so it may not be a PS'5' in name (although essentially the 5th generation PS). The number aspect does kind of tie it to a 'generation'. If Sony released a new console with a 'name' then they could release a new console every 3-4years with 'minimum required' type specs for games. However, the PS'4'k or 4.5 type name ties it to the 4th generation of Playstation.

criggy

I guess we'll have to wait and see. I can't wait for Sony to properly announce Neo and explain their plan going forward.

One thing I'd like to touch on though is node shrink roll out. Intel launched their first 14nm chips in Sept '14 and claim their first 10nm chips will launch in 2H 2017 after almost 3 years. Everyone else like Samsung, TSMC and Global Foundries are a year or more behind for high performance big chips. 14nm high-end GPU chips just launched and I can't see 10nm until sometime after Intel. 10nm is 'just' a half step node too so Neo will be on a process that is well ahead of PS4's mature (wrinkly more accurately!) 28nm but PS5 or Neo 2 if launched in late 2018 would be on a process that is only a half step node over Neo.

Interesting times ahead and a lot of uncertainties, which is why I think smaller 2-3 year/2-3X iterations makes sense right now.

BAMozzy

Its certainly an interesting time. I doubt Sony will explain their plan going forward - its not their usual style. They tend to keep things like consoles under wraps until they have to announce it.

To me I see the Neo as a console to prolong the 4th generation a bit longer than force Sony to make a next gen console sooner than 5yrs. Expectation is that console should last this long and I think that if Sony announced a 'new' console, Like MS did with Scorpio, that would have annoyed the PS4 user base far more and almost been an admission that their PS4 was under-powered at launch to last the duration.

Normally what indicates a Console is coming to the end of its life is the 'software'. When games have to make 'sacrifices' to the perceived 'standard' just to run then it is an indication its not going be long before games cannot be 'sacrificed' enough to actually run. This could be a drop in the general resolution (for example - a drop to 900/30 where 1080/30 was the 'norm'). I think we will see a lot more 900p PS4 games in the near future. The Neo could help developers too and PS4 base gamers. Instead of developers doing all they can to hit 1080p, sacrificing the visual settings, having unstable frame rates etcs, they could be more free to drop to 900p for a better gaming experience.

The last few years have been crazy, with 2016 being particularly for 'gamers'. We have seen VR finally realised, the new generations of chips and even 4k (which I know has been around a few years) have a 'standard' established. Its crazy to think that a a $1000 Titan GPU has been essentially replaced by a $380 GTX 1070. 3yrs ago, we had the 700 series, the same year the PS4 launched - and now we have a Titan beating GPU for the price of a new console!

Whilst I can see Hardware (like GPU's) constantly becoming more powerful, I can't see much development over the way we view these. Refinements on the 4k HDR TV's and the popularity growing but this is likely to be the 'standard' for the next generation of consoles. VR headsets could become lighter, wireless, maybe even increase in resolution but whether you would see 4k on screens that small or whether its pointless as its too small to be of any benefit - time will tell.

Its the jump in all these technologies that has aged the current consoles more quickly in my opinion. Its also why I feel that we may see a more 'stable' next generation. If we have consoles for example that can deliver 4k HDR gaming over a 5  yr cycle, deliver the full VR games too, there is little need to upgrade. I admit I don't at this moment see PS5 offering the full 4k HDR 60fps experience because of the 'power' needed but who knows what AMD will have in the pipeline for 2 years time and of course the costs of things like HBM2 memory could be a lot cheaper then as well. It won't make sense to build a console costing £1000  but if Sony can build a console for £400 that can deliver native 4k/60 for 5-6yrs, then I don't see the need for iterative hardware. Any additional power would be unnecessary.

MS to me look like they are merging the PC/Console - taking some of the aspects PC gamers have and bringing them to the console space and vice versa. Its in their interest as they do have an interest in both markets. For console gamers that means a 'new' gen console doesn't mean 'starting' over again as your game library comes with you - like buying a new PC/GPU - it doesn't mean your old games become obsolete. I think MS will look to keep 'evolving' the Xbox console - like buying a new GPU every 3-4years. The downside for console owners is that 'exclusives' will not be 'exclusive' just to Xbox but to MS. The benefits of course means a much bigger userbase - great for online games, great for developers - more sales, more money, more games. Sony doesn't have the PC base so I think they are sticking to a more traditional console format.

Its still an interesting time though. I am looking forward to the Neo but I am under no illusion that it 'could' be replaced in the near future - certainly within 3yrs - maybe even 2...

criggy

Morning, BAMozzy.

I just remembered a conversation I had with Japanese poster on another forum that actually, IMO, rules out another console in late 2018 for sure.

Basically Sony's head of hardware Masayasu Ito did a interview in Oct 2015 with a journalist that writes for 4gamer in Japan (the poster knows this journalist personally) who had speculated in February 2013 (PS4 reveal event) that there would be PS4 4.1 or 4.2 at some point in the near future after PS4 launched because it was x86-based.

西川善司，PS4にまつわる6つの疑問に答えるそぶりをしてみる〜PS4はPS4.1，PS4.2と進化する!? 2013 speculation article
西川善司の3DGE:PlayStation事業の戦略軍師，SCE伊藤雅康氏に聞く，PS4進化の方向性。高性能版PS4は登場するのか？ 2015 Ito interview

Here are two translated quotes from the Oct 2015 interview about 'high-performance PS4':

Then the poster shared this story from E3 this year where the journalist met with people from Sony:

So for me if this Neo iteration took 3  years to put on sale (I guess limited mostly by the wait for 14nm) there won't be another iteration in 2 years or under, much less a full fat start again PS5. It also shows for me the iteration model/2-3X bumps is where Sony are heading.

BAMozzy

I know that an outline plan can change depending on the market and what Sony themselves can (or cannot) offer. Plans can be brought forward or pushed back depending on the needs of its target audience.

I still think that as it stands at the moment, that Q4 2018 (ie 2yrs from now) could be most likely than Q4 2019 (3yrs) because of the limitations of the base PS4. How would Sony react IF games were not planned to released on PS4 because of the limited power? I am thinking more of full blown VR experiences that could come to Scorpio/PC but because of the PS4's limited GPU and CPU (comparatively) to run these. Its possible that the 'big' AAA releases of that time could run on the PS4 - maybe at 720/30 with super sampling anti-aliasing techniques (similar to Quantum Break) or Checkerboard rendering to achieve a higher native resolution - similar method Sony has described for the Neo to hit 1800p - even though the GPU seems a better fit for 1440p - to run those games on a TV. You can't make up for lack of processing power on lag free motion control and deliver a 90hz quality visual performance. Of course this could be irrelevant if VR gaming doesn't take off or the experiences remain as nothing more than 'demo's' rather than have the 'substance' of games like the Witcher 3 or size and complexity of Battlefield.

You can bet that when Sony drew up its plans for the future, they were unaware of its competitors plans and using a basic algorithm for predicting the growth of technological advancement. Its possible that some development over the next year or so could change the everything in the world of gaming - the entire landscape. It could be something far less radical in how we play games but in terms of hardware, is a far more significant leap above the predicted and at very affordable cost. If a console style gaming PC (for example) because of some technological leap came along in the next year offering native 4k HDR 60fps gaming on your TV for £200 then Sony and MS would probably revisit their whole plans

I haven't really accounted for Sony potentially responding to MS's Scorpio in mu prediction - something that is equivalent to the Neo and PS4 combined. Its apparent that the Neo has no chance of delivering a native 4k resolution and so could be in a similar position to MS with the XB1 - in that the XB1 can't deliver the same quality visuals that the PS4 manages. Would Sony be 'happy' to sit behind the Scorpio and have its games limited by the base PS4 for several years? I only based my prediction on the current PS4 and its ability to deliver the full range of games that will be around in 2-3years time. Sony won't want to release a console 'after' these are available but in time to offer them. If we don't (as I think) see a new console in Q4 2018 (for the holiday season) then I am certain we will see one in Q4 2019 because the PS4 will almost certainly not have the hardware to deliver the full range of games into 2020!

Of course a lot of this is Hypothetical but its still relevant in terms of proving a point. Plans can change and if Sony 'feel' they are lagging behind, losing out and/or unable to deliver the same/equivalent to its user base, they will bring plans forward - if not then they may even be able to delay plans as R&D, manufacturing costs etc cost money

criggy

So Patrick Klepek (he who broke the Neo story) has confirmed Gameblog.fr's rumour that the Neo will be announced and showcased at an event in New York on September 7th: Report: Sony to Reveal Upgraded PlayStation 4 in September | VICE | United States

So Neo could be released by the end of September or even before give Andrew House name checked Apple with their 'available now' strategy.

silvercue

why do we still have 2 threads for this?

mark6226

You can forget about ps4 neo ams 4K gaming. There's no chance at the price.
Who remembers all of the pompous Sony claims about the ps4. They wowed us with gameplay videos what all turned out to be fake. They promised full HD gaming.
Obviously it was all lies. What do people really expect for the money.
Maybe the new ps4 will do what Sony wanted the original one to do.
Who knows?
But forget about 4K gaming.

shoestring25

arnt all these plans contingent on what AMD are producing. sony making a neo with what looks like custom RX480 and an overclocked jaguar cpu. while Microsoft apear to be waiting for next years vega. the cpu in the scorpio will be interesting as apparently AMDs new zen cpu will be out early next year as well

BAMozzy

@mark6226 The PS4 'Neo' will be able to do native 4K gaming! If its the leaked specs of the approx 4.2tflop custom RX480, then the console is capable of 4k gaming! I very much doubt that it would offer native 4k on a 'new' AAA game but the possibility is there for an indie or 'remaster' to hit native 4k resolutions.

The 'Neo' is around 2.5x the power of the base PS4. A game (lets take Last of Us) at 1080/60 on PS4. If they double the resolution to account for the 'double the performance', you get roughly 1440/60. So if you half the frame rate back down to the original 30fps (as it was on PS3), you could double the resolution again and get 4k.

As you can see its entirely possible for the Neo to do native 4k. I wouldn't be surprised if Sony do offer at least one native 4k game so they can be the first home console to reach that milestone - especially with MS taking their time in bringing out Scorpio.

Sony have also said that new techniques in rendering should help achieve a higher native resolution. They are hoping that games will be around the 1800p mark (or better) according to the leaked documentation. Of course its unlikely we will see games running at Native 4k with all the settings turned up to Max levels - after all even the latest GPU's can't manage that with every game and keep to at least 60fps. Consoles though often have better 'performance' than the equivalent set-up on PC. Considering the 1.6ghz CPU and equivalent GPU of the PS4 probably wouldn't run many of todays AAA games as well or as high a resolution if it was in a PC...