Next Tory Leader - The Long Road to #10

johntheexpat

After?
If they survive intact until the end of the month it will be a miracle.

McPhee

I doubt IDS moved on his own. He's basically repeating what Boris has been saying for some time, only with less subtlety. And frankly, the two main benefactors of this fall out are IDS and Boris. I'd be very surprised if Boris isn't involved and if it's all big coincidence.

The first step is to lay the responsibility for unpopular cuts at George Osborne's feet. The second is to attack his (rather poor) record as Chancellor.

tapzilla2k

We are in a bit of a limbo stage at the moment, where the old style of politics clings on while the consensus Thatcher created and Blair ran with is crumbling slowly. Labour's grassroots has perhaps recognised this and thus Corbyn with his honest style of politics benefited from that change. Joke about Corbyn if you must but he's on to something that a better presented Politician would be hammering the Tories with.

I guess you could say Corbyn is laying the foundations for the next Labour Leader to take forward. He'd need a major Economic crisis or a total implosion of the Tory Party to get a sniff at #10. If the Tories do implode, I expect it would mean a hung parliament rather than a Labour win.

It'll be somebody from the backbenches whose not part of the club Cameron, Osborne and Boris hail from. David Davis might grasp what needs to be done, but it's hard to say if the Tory Party would put him forward to the point where the grassroots vote.

Tory Leadership elections are quite narrow and while it might seem like an advantage over Labour's method it could ultimately backfire if they get a leader who doesn't understand the direction in which the political wind is going. Boris under pressure tends to unravel, 2020 might be in the bag. 2025 not so much.

The EU referendum result has to be a clear victory for either side, otherwise the Tories will fight amongst themselves all the way to the next election. It's looking like the later part of the Major years all over again. Whose to say we won't see a vote of confidence taking place before the year is out and a General Election ? I'd say it's more likely if there is a Brexit.

I think IDS had a mixed bag of reasons for quitting. Helping Boris become PM is probably part of it as that will be the last laugh on Cameron and Osborne. He'll either get another job in the cabinet or he'll be off to the Lords at the next election. He seems to be bringing the curtain down on his political career.

Boris the PM would have to deal with the plots and revenge seeking that will be coming his way from Cameron and Osborne. This has all the ingredients for a Political Party with power in the palm of it's hands throwing it away over internal splits over who gets to weld power. Same old Tories, sees opposition as weak - fights itself.

Toko Black

To be fair to Osborne as much as that sticks in my throat, the record of any Chancellor is primarily based on 2 factors that are for the most part out of their hands.

The first and prime factor is the UK economy and it's relationship to rest of the world. For all the tinkering and policies, there are too many variables in such complex systems to make it little more than trying to hang on to a small boat at the whim of a stormy sea - all the while trying to project an air of confidence so as not to cause panic and damage the economy more.

The second factor is the particular governments political ideology and their voters.
Essentially any actions or policies are shaped by the beliefs of the politicians and their party leadership curbed by what they can get through parliament and balanced against keeping the electorate that votes for them onside.

tapzilla2k

So it seems Tory MP's are becoming restless.

Enki

The mask slipped on working families and Tax credits, completely fell off on the now very open and draconian attacks on people who require some support from the state because of disability Tory MPs got pummelled on their agreement to cut ESA just prior to the budget. The narrative, this is for the next generation, is now debunked with Academy School plan; its own grass root sphincters are tighter than ever. I walk down my street I here squeaks everywhere.

“I feel really angry,” said Melinda Tilley, cabinet member for education for Oxfordshire county council, which covers the prime minister’s Witney constituency.

Tory councillors attack plans to turn all schools into academies
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Cliff

So Dave has jumped on a flight to Lanzarote, leaving the family behind (not forgetfulness ).

Probably wondering how he got into this awful mess and if he will ever get out of it.

EarthRod

David was given a spade when he was elected the leadership of the Conservative party. Since then he'd been digging a political hole, small to start with but as the years followed and his arrogance and self-belief grew so the hole got deeper. He is approaching the time when a little nudge will cause his fall.

This is not David's fault, it happen to most leaders who cling on to power for too long. He might make the full term of office - who knows. Dodgy times ahead for the current PM.

Enki

Matthew Parris, former close confident and advisor to Margaret Thatcher, critiques Boris Johnson leadership qualities-

“Somebody has to call a halt to the gathering pretence that if only you’re sufficiently comical in politics you can laugh everything off,” he wrote.  “Incompetence is not funny. Policy vacuum is not funny. A careless disregard for the truth is not funny. Advising old mates planning to beat someone up is not funny. Abortions and gagging orders are not funny. Creeping ambition in a jester’s cap is not funny. Vacuity posing as merriment, cynicism posing as savviness, a wink and a smile covering for betrayal … these things are not funny.

Former Tory MP's scathing Boris Johnson attack deepens party rift

When this lot fall out, it is something to behold!

krish

He's the Tories' Trump card