Next Tory Leader - The Long Road to #10

tapzilla2k

Thought it might be worth starting a thread on this as we are probably in for a long and silent leadership campaign between the contenders.

Top 3 -
1. Boris
2. May
3. Osborne

Outsiders (my guesses)
1. David Davis
2. Jeremy Hunt
3. Michael Gove
4. Sajid Javid

Who do you think has the best chance of becoming Tory Leader and ergo Prime Minister.
The Big Question - Will Cameron choose when to step down or will be forced out in the traditional Tory way ?

My gut says Boris, my head says that Theresa May should have a decent shot at it given how long she's survived in the Home Office.

EarthRod

My guess is Osborne.

IronGiant

5 years is much longer than a week in Politics.  Too early to call

krish

No chance for May.

Hunt is a good punt as an outsider as he's a lucky Jeremy.

Really only between two people. I think we reached peak Boris circa London 2012 zip line, he's definitely ridden that crest, and fudge ups and skeletons could be on their way. But is Gideon just the next Gordon?

pandemic

So nobody thinks Cameron will renegade on his claim that he won't run for a 3rd term? I think there is high likelihood that if Labour don't select a competitive leader, he'll run a 3rd term.

On the ops top 3, don't think any of them will make it when the time comes, certainly not May or Osborne - just cannot see them being appealing to the wider UK populous.

My bets on Cameron running in 2020 and somebody out the blue will replace him, between the following 5 years - depending on the results of the 2020 GE.

tapzilla2k

Hence the Long Road to #10. Lots of things could blow the Tory Leadership race wide open -
1. Economic blips
2. CSA Scandal exploding.
3. Splits over Europe.

She's definitely going to have a run at the job, but unless something dramatic happens then I think she'd probably drop out of the race before any voting takes place.

He stands a chance if scandal engulfs Boris and Osborne. Though Jeremy Hunt might be in a spot of bother with his 7 day NHS plans.

I wouldn't count Boris out entirely at this stage. He's got a bit more charisma than Osborne has. Who fell pretty flat when he did PMQ's the other week.

He can try but if he mishandles the EU referendum and can't keep his backbenchers under control then he is probably toast. The danger for the Tories is that they will see 2020 as in the bag and it not mattering who the leader is, which could backfire on them during the next Parliament. I don't think Osborne is suitable for the top job as he'll probably turn out to be a bit like Brown i.e. both are great at political tactics but woeful on selling policy to the people.  

I doubt the Tory Party will be thinking along those lines, especially if Labour's leader is seen as weak as Ed Miliband. Hubris in other words may lead the Tories into making a miscalculation as 2025 might be a bit of a closer fight (I'm hoping Dan Jarvis runs for Labour Leader next time around by all accounts he terrifies some of the Tories as he's seen active military service).

Cameron faces an uphill battle to stay as PM. He's got too many enemies on the backbenches and a cabinet full of people after the top job. As history shows the Tory Party is quite ruthless when it wants to be over it's leaders.

fluxo

David Davis would be my preference.

Historically, those elected as party leaders are often not the expected choices. Conversely, those who are considered to be potential future PMs (e.g., Heseltine and Portillo in their time) do not necessarily get close. It would be futile to make a prediction.

Cliff

Too far away to predict. Look how John Major popped out of nowhere when Mrs Thatcher was stabbed in the back.

My bets are still with Boris. May will not be fresh, Davis is a spent force, Osbourne maybe, but that depends on how the country improves in terms of jobs and real spending power in people's pockets.

As for Cameron, I just don't see him as wanting to stay on. He is not that kind of person. He has already said as much and that is not because of some promise like Blair had with Brown.
The EU vote will be tough, he will have a few more grey hairs, and thinking about a job change.

domtheone

No chance Osborne.  Just hasn't got the charisma and/or the likeability factor.

May, ditto.

Hope Boris gets a shot but he's a Clarkson style love or hate him figure and he may not get enough love.

krish

Having had his mockney geezer a year or two ago, it's going to be fun watching his ongoing makeover, probably won't be as car crash as Gordon Brown's attempts at looking and sounding normal.