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This is how I see it.
The population has increased to 65 million (according to the last census) and it is widely accepted that it is probably a good deal higher than this.
Net migration adds another 200 thousand every year.
There are about 23 million in full time employment.
Which means that there are at least 42 million not in full time employment, most of whom will be on low income or nothing.
You don't start paying NI until your income is over £8000, so a large proportion of that 42 million are paying very little or nothing towards the NHS.
So back to 23 million in full time employment.
The average full time salary is £27k. This is a median which means that 11.5 million people are earning less than £27k.
If you are on the highest minimum wage in full time empliyment (40 hours per week) then you pay £900 per year.
So 11.5 million are paying between £900 and £2300 into the NHS per year.
If for simplicity sake we say they are all paying the full £2,300 and we say that 42 million not in full time emplyment are paying nothing then this means that 42 million are contributing an average of £500 per year each.
And remember that is £500 NI, that doesn't all go to the NHS, it has to cover things lije police, fire brigade etc.
Private Health policies are around £600 per person. These only cover complications - no GP, no accident and emergancy, no maternity etc). They also have excess payments, do not treat existing conditions, often have a no claims system that increases your payments after a claim.
Now accepted that they have to make a profit, which the NHS does not but because of this they generally get their maths right.
So if the private sector is saying that they need £600 per year per person to effectively provide a service with a lot less scope than the NHS then it makes sense to me that the NHS require a similar amount.
And the fact is 53.5 million (82% of the population) are paying less than that.
Of course there is the 11.5 million earning above £27k who are contributing more. And there are other sources like company NI but it is too small a proportion to cover the deficit and the government has to prop it up with income tax.
The stark reality, is that the people aren't contributing enough to pay for the NHS and keep trying to squeeze the top 5% who earn over the main NI threshold isn't enough, but to ask the whole population to cough up more doesn't look good in manifestos.
And the secondary problem, as mentioned above, is that as soon as the government tries to do something (like introducing/increasing upper NI contributions) the unions pounce and it all gets sucked up as wage increases. Not saying that some aren't deserving but that isn't fixing the problem.
Cheers,
Nigel |
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