Greece faces "the spectre of bankruptcy" (again)

Philly112

The Greeks certainly don't want to exit the EU. Whether they can do what it takes to enable them to stay in is another matter. They are in a very unenviable position. Exit will bring about far more pain for them. Their economy will be totally dependent on tourism, and imports will go through the roof.

pragmatic

At the same time the EU should not be turning the screws, but trying to help the new Government.

The linking of loans to GDP seemed like a good idea, or maybe a low interest period with ratchets every 5 years or so to ensure the GDP reaches levels that can be expected to force through reforms.

The Greek culture of tax being optional and pensions claimed from 50's when everyone in Europe is moving to 70's needs to be nipped in the bud.  There are plenty of changes that could be made in exchange for help (with strings) to stimulate growth at another end to help pay the debt off.  For example (German) machinery on a hire purchase platform and consultancy to improve farm production, make the country self sufficient and imports less/unnecessary, at least for subsidence, improve exports.

Greece should be a mine for green energy too, plenty of sun, lots of shore for tidal energy, and offshore wind, sell some of that to Germany like the schemes in the UK where solar panels are put on peoples houses and the excess is paid to the installation company i.e. Germany can try and keep its green credentials by generating power in sunny Greece with masses of sea within it's territory, selling what it generates to the Greeks and keeping the excess rather than its laughable policy of building masses of coal power plants.

domtheone

Their exports might go through the roof too if they devalue by, say 100%.

fluxo

Possibly, but they currently import more than they export. Where Greece are, it's not an enviable position. If only leaving would immediately return the country to where it was before joining the Euro. Alas, it may not be as simple as that.

They are trapped between two unappealing alternatives, painful externally imposed measures and a possibly chaotic exit from the Euro. The latter might bring with it hyperinflation, a run on the banks and savings lost, an inability to import essentials and a currency that is effectively worthless in the world - there are a lot of scary possibilities and, because there are not many precedents to refer to, one can understand a certain reluctance to leave.

In the long run it might be better to leave, but the prospect of considerable immediate pain beyond that they are already experiencing is a deterrent.

pragmatic

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greek-bailout-crisis-athens-threatens-to-seize-german-assets-as-compensation-for-nazi-war-crimes-10101329.html

Hehe

pragmatic

From the sounds Germany are leaking they may be pushed, although it might be their own 'Game theory' of pretending to care less than Greece if they stay so they think twice about going, a bit like a passive aggressive relationship really.

mikeybabes2

Greece should never have been allowed to join the Euro due to it's well known economic problems. Of course the EU leadership just couldn't resist the urge to expand their reach.

The Greeks really need to be released from the Euro, allowed to to devalue and rebuild their country and economy. The pain the ordinary citizens are going through is terrible, and I feel so sorry for their young people in particular, who have had no role in the creation of this problem.

However, the EU will be very worried that if the Greeks leave the Euro, and the world does not end, that the citizens of other countries will look to release themselves too.

After all, the uncertainty of what happens when a country exits will be answered - and it might not be so terrible after all. And we all know how the EU likes a good referendum (or two)....

And if Greece is a basket case, what is going to happen with Spain, Italy and Portugal. Oh and by the way France have not complied with their Austerity commitments, but of course they were given a pass by the others.

BISHI

Scrap it and start again - Euro 2.1.

mikeybabes2

Is that the new change rate with the pound ?  

johntheexpat

If Germany push too hard and "get everything sorted" what will that do to the euro?  It will strengthen.  A weak euro is a massive benefit for Germany and German exports.  Strengthening the euro will hurt them badly.  So don't expect too much, but do expect lots of hot air.