So Greece got a four month extension in EU bail out deal.
One thing I have noticed is that the language has changed.
Before it was said in accommodating terms and they would try and get Greece through a rough patch and help them remain within the EU.
Now its a bit more forceful.
Maybe, behind the scenes, Greece has been told they can't leave?
Merkel almost pushed Greece out of the Eurozone when the crisis first hit, she changed her mind for reasons that are not entirely clear.
Might just be that Merkel has had enough of the new Greek Government and has made herself crystal clear behind the scenes and it's shone through in the language. I guess 4 months gives the markets enough time to factor in a Greek Eurozone exit (though they may still assume a deal with be done and not bother). Anyway 4 months to argue and not come up with a deal. The Drachma may yet return.
The four month deadline only kicks in if Greece can draw up satisfactory proposals by Monday - so there is still some work to be done. But I don't think anybody - Greece, Germany or the wider EU - wants to see the country leave the Euro.
Didn't one of the 20th centuries great money people point out once that if you owed the bank £10,000 you had a big problem, but if you owed the bank £10 million the bank had a big problem?
Been in the EU has not benefited Greece at all, holiday makers are down, tax receipts are down if that's possible, unemployment is up, wages are down. They will leave the Euro either within the next 4 months or shortly after.
We'll see. Greek public opinion has consistently been broadly in support of EU and Euro membership - they just don't want the austerity. It remains to be seen whether those aspirations are compatible.
Seems like a win-win for Germany sometimes. If Greece stays in, their loans are safe. If Greece gets the chop, the Euro will fall and German exports (already booming!) will rocket.
Germany (1 )Europe as a whole (less than 1). But the game isn't over yet.
Author: Rasczak
26-11-2019 01:54:59
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