Climate change discussion thread

sidicks

                                                                                johntheexpat said:                                                                                                                Is there any study produced that says the effects of MMGW will be noticeable in the next few years?  No, I don't think so.                                Click to expand...       

ANY non-standard weather is repeatedly used as evidence to support MMGW...

sidicks

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/CRUMSUCO2June.jpg

johntheexpat

By whom?  Not by the scientists.  Nor by scientific organisations.  Maybe by green politicians and most definitely by a scientifically illiterate media but I defy you to show me a scientific base for your assesment.

But you want to disbelieve the science behind the theories that support MMGW, so you will clutch at any straw.   

You knock others for their lack of in-depth economic savvy in a different forum.  Are you really going to declare a scientifically robust background to support your views here?

johntheexpat

If you take out the last two years from the data the trend will be completley different, that much is obvious just by looking.  But as someone who is obviously comfortable with numbers and statistical analyses etc, you know that that graph is utterly irrelevant.  Its inclusion in any serious debate about projected (long term) trends for an effect that has yet to be seen, or is not yet expected, is deliberatley disingenuous and designed to mislead.

so:

johntheexpat

Currently around the mid 20's in Biarritz and very warm along the whole meditteranean coast.  16 C around here in the Pays de La Loire.  They aren't claiming any records yet for December, due in no small part to the cold snap in the middle.  But they may yet.

Just as an aside, someone in GC posted (in a thread called Rain, rain, rain)

Well, its warm for Dec!  And the main tennant of MMGW theory and its effects is that what we will actually notice is extraordinary swings in the weather we get.  Nobody is really going to notice if the average temperature is 1 or 2 degrees higher (what is the difference between 16 and 18 C? ).  but the most noticeable effect will be the sudden and dramatic changes in weather.

So by pooh-poohing GW with his argument, he is actually observing one of the most probable effects.

It seems there is a long way to go in educating the general public about GW its causes, effects, consequences etc etc.


ie complaining about drought one month and then non-stop rain the next.

sidicks

Extreme weather (hurricanes) decreasing...

johntheexpat

That fits in nicely with 'climate change' then  

(and it would be nice if we could actually see the graph and numbers etc)

sidicks

Or it fits in with 'no discernible pattern' and certainly no link to causation by man.

sidicks

1972:
Artic 'specialist' Bernt Balchen said a general warming trend over the North Pole was melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.

1974:
Time magazine said "when metereologists take an average of temperatures around the globe they find the atmosphere has been growing gradually cooler for the past three decades. The trend shows no indication of reversing."

1989:
An Associated Press article said "Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide two degrees by 2010."

1990:
Michel Oppenheimer and Robert H. Boyle in their book 'Dead Heat' said "1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots...The Platte River of Nebraska will be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers."

2000:
UEA's Dr Viner said "Britain’s winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives."


Hmmm

johntheexpat

You can't post a link and state that the link shows some extreme weather declining and then say it fits in with no discernible pattern.  You claim to find a pattern (ie decresing hurricanes) and then say there are no discernible patterns.