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The underlying issue is the huge increase in the numbers of elderly. Your age is the strongest indicator of how much use you will make of the NHS. Therefore, an ageing population increases NHS demand even if the population total remains static.
I have been looking at some of the statistics on this. (Sad, I know.) In 1963 the median age of death was 72, i.e. 50% of deaths in that year were of people below this age. Last year that figure was 82.
The older the age you look at the bigger the increase in numbers. In 1963 27% of deaths were of people over 80, 4% of people over 90 and 0.06% of people over 100. Last year the comparable numbers were 56%, 22% and 1.1%. Those are huge increases - double the amount of people at 80, five times as many at 90 and 20 times as many at 100!
Although NHS budgets always go up we cannot expect NHS budgets to keep up with this level of growth.
At the moment life expectancy at 65 is around 20 years. So if you started work at 18 and worked constantly till you retired at 65, then if you make average life expectancy of 85 you will have spent the majority of your life out of work!
So my conclusion is that we cannot expect the government to pay for our old age - we will need to fund it ourselves.
However, who funds care for the elderly, be it state or private, is only part of the issue. The other issue is that the rise in numbers of the elderly and the fall in numbers of the young is likely to result in a care crisis as the ratio of those that need support and those willing to provide it falls significantly. Immigration of younger workers is generally seen as the best solution to this issue - but that isn't a popular solution in current political climates. |
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