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So, it seems to me to be a little wishful thinking number juggling on the Chancellors part-
Working tax credits was a noble idea initially but has simply become a corporate profit subsidy enabling employers to pay sh*t wages and expect the tax payer to top up the rest to make the working poor more compliant ( outrage in the states at this has forced the likes of Walmart to increase their wages to a sufficient level at the apparent expense of profit - in reality I suspect employment numbers reduced).
It is not the states role to subsidise corporate profit and GO is justified in following what happened over the pond, but there will certainly be consequences.
His 'sweetener' with reductions to corporate tax and NI to encourage employers to pay his ' living wage' will, I suspect, not cover this additional wage bill and employees will either be let go or offered fewer hours. Profit margins will certainly not be allowed to fall. A rise in tax thresholds may salve the transition somewhat for those higher up the pay scale but I doubt there will be any benefit at all for the working poorest.
For those small scale employers these changes will be far harder to absorb and I suspect many will go to the wall or significantly scale back, I expect employment figures to at least atrophy or at worst fall, and under employment levels to significantly rise.
In all probability this is the correct thing to do but it can only realistically succeed with a rapidly expanding economy and its associated demand for labour. I would like to believe the figures of between 2 and 3 per cent growth but, with the current circumstances globally and in particular within Europe, I doubt this is going to be possible.
Given the circumstances I have to say ( with gritted teeth ) that this budget is not what I expected and is more reasonable and far less ideological than I expected. Furthermore ( and to quote a chap from the Today programme), ' George Osbourne has parked his tank on Labours Lawn' ......... and I think it will be there for a while. I've never liked the chap TBH but he has played a blinder here, I suspect this, and every subsequent budget if this is anything to go by, will more than trump Michael Gove's effort for the declared leadership vacancy in 5 years time and as a teacher I can at least be grateful for that. The next labour leader's job just got that much harder. |
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