When will the FTSE hit 6000?

tapzilla2k

I think that all depends on the US avoiding the fiscal cliff. If they fall over it, investors etc will
panic.

pandemic

And pigs will fly ...

domtheone

It's only 15% ish.

Valuations are still pretty low.

If there's a switch out of bonds..

pandemic

For the FTSE 100 to reach 7000, the combined value of the companies in the FTSE 100 would have to increase by roughly £230 billion based roughly on 15% increased. Which is about 3 times the current value of BP, traditionally was the largest company in the FTSE till recently. Hence, why I think it's unlikely for several years.

domtheone

£230 Billion is not a lot when you consider many a company has a lowly valuation but each to their own.  Remember, the FTSE was practically at 7K over a decade ago.

Ultimately, the US will dictate though.  If they falter, all bets are off as the FTSE generally only plays ball if the DOW allows.

I don't particularly care what the FTSE 100 does anyway as 2/3 of my large caps are defensive and normally go up when the FTSE goes down

pandemic

I don't know how you can say £230 billion is not a lot, it is a lot in the context of the FTSE 100. The highest the FTSE 100 has ever been was 6950 back in 1999, fuelled by the dotcom bubble. We all know that went bust which caused the FTSE 100 to drop right down to less than 3600 by 2003, we saw similar effect due to the banking crisis peaking in 2006 and dipping in 2009.
Assuming no periods of negative growth next year the highest I'd expect to see the FTSE100 is 6400 and the lowest 5600. Although it's difficult to predict anything at the moment, I don't think we'll see 7000 for at least 3-4 years.

sidicks

Is it feasible that the FTSE 100 could increase by 15% in a year?  Yes

Has the FTSE 100 index experienced increases of 15% or much more in a year in the past?  Yes

Will the FTSE 100 increase by 15% in 2013? Possibly, but unlikely, in my opinion

johntheexpat

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/stockmarket/3/default.stm

A winner!!  

Almost blew it!

really nearly blew it.  Within a few minutes of the first day of trading of 2013, which is almost 2012 (but not quite)


Absolutely correct.  If only you'd backed up your wisdom with a little prediction the glory could have been yours


So vice-versa and this morning was expensive?

Up 2% already.  Only 13% to go.

BISHI

Well 2 days into the new year and its over 6000. Lets hope it stays there...!

domtheone

Yep.  Hope so.

Many shares are still historically cheap.  Arguably, no better way of saving for the long term at the moment if you are careful (and have some luck) with your choices.

I hope Lloyds has another year like 2012.  Might break even earlier than 2020 then!

FTSE at 31st Dec 2013 anyone.

6720 for me