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For a long while my guess has been that the only realistic way that we'll get PR is if Labour decide to support it.
The Conservatives never will, all the other parties already do.
Labour have flirted with it, but not been fully committed. The received wisdom is that those in the party opposed to a change quite like the idea of getting a full majority every now and then.
I'm wondering if this might tip the balance:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9418
Note:
"Looking at how the vote was distributed at the general election the Conservatives should, on a uniform swing, be able to secure a majority on a lead of about 6%. Labour would need a lead of almost thirteen points. On an equal amount of votes – 34.5% a piece – the Conservatives would have almost fifty seats more than Labour, Labour would need to have a lead of about four points over the Conservatives just to get the most seats in a hung Parliament. The way the cards have fallen, the system is now even more skewed against Labour than it was against the Conservatives."
And further:
"And, of course, these are on current boundaries. Any boundary review is likely to follow the usual pattern of reducing the number in seats in northern cities where there is a relative decline in population and increasing the number of seats in the south where the population is growing… further shifting things in the Conservatives favour."
And finally, this is all presuming a full UK vote. How long until a successful Scottish independence referendum?
Look at those figures again. Labour would need a 13 point lead just to get a tiny majority. For comparison purposes, Blair's landslide in 1997 gave them a lead of just 12.5%. That's right, as things stand, even if Labour got a result like that in'97 they might still not have a majority in parliament.
Factor in the boundary changes and it might look like Labour would never gain a majority again.
I wonder if this could be the factor that finally pushes Labour to support PR.
Steve W |
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