Chris Davies out - New by-election.

Rasczak

They don't need to win a General Election or seats. How many seats did Ukip have at their height?

Ukip, caused Cameron to see his voters leave and so he promised a referendum. That's what Ukip wanted. If we left the EU, TBP would probably disappear as well. Farage had almost retired until we went back on actually leaving.

Stop thinking of them as a normal party with normal goals. This is about leaving the EU. If they are stealing Conservative votes and stop the Conservatives getting power then the Conservatives will have to be more Eurosceptic to stop them.

Chances are Peterborough would have been a Conservative win if TBP didn't exist. This is about making the Conservatives, Conservative.

tapzilla2k

Entirely agree. Brecon was a leave voting area so this should be an easy win for the Brexit Party.

IronGiant

The only sure way the Brexit Party can ensure that Brexit happens is by gaining seats in Parliament if we have a General Election before the October deadline. Even one issue parties can gain seats in an elected chamber to ensure a policy is carried out and then disperse or morph into a proper political party with actual policies.

I guess what you've not considered when it comes to the Brexit party is that it might destroy the Tory Party gain zero seats, but not take enough votes off Labour or the Liberal Democrats to prevent a Pro Remain Government being formed. If we exit on the 31st with or without a deal, then the Brexit party becomes irrelevant.

IronGiant

This is embarrassing, if not abhorrent: people are discussing the predicted result of the by election, not the outgoing candidate.

richp007

Which is pretty much what I said in post #4...

Sonic67

There's only so many times we can repeat this.

I don't expect the brexit party to win seats. I don't really want them to

I just want them to hurt the Tories enough that they do something about it.

nheather

If the summer recess goes ahead - which I'm sure it will - I'm not sure there's enough time for a GE before October 31st. An extension to Brexit into 2020 to allow a GE to take place is a reasonable possibility. I think the EU would grant that as one of their stipulations for an extension.

Then as you say there's every chance of a Remain government being formed. That may still take us out the EU, but very softly, and would likely enrage just about every Brexiter in the land.

Either way it's a very dangerous game the Tories are playing with their future. They're on their doggy life now with Johnson as PM, could be game over for them after a GE. As for the Brexit Party they have to start pursuing seats here if they want any chance of being involved. It's laughable that Farage wants to be involved in a Brexit consensus, when in our house he holds nothing whatsoever. And with a Labour/Lib Dem government, they probably wouldn't even let him in the door.

Rasczak

Nope. I barely think one Brexit Party MP will make a difference. What will make a difference is the electorate switching to the brexit party and worrying the main parties over their marginals.

And if the brexit party doesn't win the seat it won't mean that those who want to leave the EU will shrug their shoulders and say, "well we've had a good run..."

richp007

I forgot about this thread, I posted a list of the candidates in the Boris thread.

It's a pretty big by-election in my opinion, but media coverage seems to have been scarce. Massive for both if either of the Libs or TBP take it.

Shocking for Johnson if another Tory seat goes.

Everyone pretty much written off the Labour chances. Be interesting to see where they come. Could be 4th. Shocking if so.

Rasczak

Rumoured that Labour might lose their deposit. Hardly surprising, they are neither fish nor foul at the moment and deserve to be punished for it.

I suspect media coverage will occur tomorrow as, whatever the result, it is significant. A Boris win will embolden him and secure his current majority whilst a defeat would halve it and deflate Boris bounce. A Lib Dem win will embolden the remainers whilst a defeat would be a bad start for Jo. A Brexit Party win would shake the Tories whilst a defeat really suggests their party is dead.