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Has Change UK blown it?
Has Change UK blown its chances? Unless its support surges over the next few days, it will stumble badly in next week’s elections to the European Parliament—syphoning enough votes from other anti-Brexit parties to deny them perhaps five or six seats, but winning too few votes to pick up more than one or two of its own.
Two weeks later, Change UK will be absent from the Peterborough by-election. Any chance of securing early momentum to build on its dramatic birth will be lost.
That is not all. With the semi-proportional European Parliament elections out of the way, Change UK faces the ferocious headwinds of first-past-the-post for all other nationwide elections. It is hard to overstate the pain this inflicts on parties trying to break into the big time. Four years ago, Ukip won 13 per cent support but won just one seat. Back in 1983, the SDP/Liberal Alliance did twice as well—26 per cent—but secured only 23 seats (4 per cent of the total).
It’s not just that first-past-the-post punishes small parties. If you can concentrate your support in particular kinds of seat, you have a chance to fight back. The most obvious examples come from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. Parties that are small in UK terms can sweep up seats in their own territories. |
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Author: Bl4ckGryph0n
26-11-2019 00:50:49