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I am in England/UK. (BTW I love the term "outwith" - it is something I only ever hear from Scottish people - that term seems to have died off in England.)
You would expect the NHS in Scotland to provide a better service than in England as the Barnett formula ensures that whatever is spent per head in England, the rate in Scotland is fixed to be around 20% higher.
Overall, changes in population should not have much of a difference on providing for healthcare. If the population goes up 10%, then broadly speaking you would expect the economy and tax revenues to rise 10%.
If that population increase was caused by immigration then that should actually benefit government expenditure as immigrants are known to generally make less use of the NHS than the resident population - only because they are on average younger - and immigrants are on average more economically active e.g. more likely to be employed.
The main change in stress on the NHS is the aging population. For example, someone aged 85 costs the NHS around 7 times as much as someone in their 30s. There are around 5 times as many people in that age bracket now as their were 50 years ago and that number is expect to go up another 5 times in the next 50 years. Rising obesity is also likely to increase costs for the same size of population.
Any estimates that I have seen on Health Tourism always come up with very low numbers in terms of costs to the NHS e.g. a couple of hundred million a year. This sounds a lot to some people (e.g. a Daily Mail headline) but represents around 1/10 of 1 percent of NHS costs. (There are stimates that it would cost more to put systems in place to check everyone being treated to make sure that they were not health tourists.) So Health Tourism has never been a significant cost drain on the NHS.
Note that national Insurance does not have anything to do with NHS funding. The money is not specifically allocated to the NHS, or anything else. It just goes into the general pot and gets spent on defense, schools, NHS, etc. like any other tax.
There does seem to be something structurally wrong with the NHS. For example, it is pretty sad that it is the worlds largest user of fax machines and pagers - technologies that other countries ditched decades ago. Faxing seems to be the worst possible way of sending around records and ppatient data in this day and age.
Personally I would like to see the NHS monopoly on providing care split up. Private companies should be allowed to build and run hospitals that are not under NHS control but take NHS patients. We could then have a mix of private hospitals and state hospitals - as most countries do. A GP could refer a patient to either a private or a state hospital. A patient would not care which one they went to as both costs would be covered by the state. Doctors could work wherever they wanted - under NHS contracts or under contracts at private hospitals. |
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