Markov/Litvinenko 2.0

Sonic67

Russia is a complex place. The government, and economy are on its knees. Corruption is very high. Government systems/services are used officially by day and for criminal gains by 'night'. The line between and enemy and a useful resource is incredibly thin. Money and contacts will overcome most challenges.

If you hang your hat on that whether she is off to a good start or not then you are really working from the wrong premise and totally missing the point especially regarding the intelligence 'game'.

What works generally well with Russians is being decisive and concrete actions. All this 'lets give them 10 days to answer' or 'a well lets give them some more time' or 'lets give them our evidence' etc is not gaining any respect, and will simply string along any kind of diplomatic efforts.

Short deadlines, immediate action is what makes them sit up and pay attention. And they'll deny it for a bit longer and play the games. The propaganda machines are in full swing now. But let's not forget one thing, whilst there are a lot of very rich Russians the government isn't one of them Sanctions will seriously hurt them. But in my opinion they still have some rope left to keep playing the look at the nasty west game which resonates well with the home front especially in the upcoming elections.

I've had the pleasure to have had a few drink fuelled nights with Russian colleagues in Moscow and in Warsaw recently. And if you subscribe to children and drunken people tell the truth then the shrug of the shoulder and the phase "It's Russia" really stuck with me.

krish

None of them were described as "traitors" by Putin. Also they tend to go back to Russia sometimes. They contribute to both countries. Finally maybe they meet with "accidents" if Putin does want rid. Nerve agent is a message.
Oh dear. MI5 will advise the PM who they want rid of. The spies who are good at their trade and can't normally be removed. Hence "undeclared. " Spies tend not to say they are a spy.

Marv

Putin ordered it and wants us to know that without ever admitting it. We know that, he knows we know that, and we know he knows we know that and is gloating.

EarthRod

Fairs fair.

Russia 'will expel UK diplomats soon'

Marv

If Vladimir ordered the 'hit' using a nerve agent he would know that we would find out the nerve agent was Russian or Soviet manufactured.

He would also know the USA would know and that we would know the USA and most Western countries would condemn the attack on life by use of such a substance on foreign soil.

Vladimir can sit back and watch: analyse in detail the unfolding of the response worldwide as well as the British response.

It could be a test to see how fast the response is and test the strength of any political ripples and fallout or repercussions.

I doubt he is gloating.

krish

Be ironic all the bitching Trump gets if America ended up having to help us.

Sonic67

As he got away with a polonium-210 based assassination eleven years ago, perhaps he felt the time was right for another stunt with a weak govt/PM and heavily polarised and volatile political atmospheres in many democracies at present.

I only interpret the "prove it" attitude as gloating.

Sonic67

A sample is going somewhere for verification. BJ said this morning though can't remember where he said it was going.

rancidpunk

It will be going to the OPCW for independent verification.

Sonic67

In all fairness he probably can't either.