The "cunning" Chairman McDonnell is currently getting absolutely battered by Andrew O'Neill data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7
While you continually overlook the instability of a minority govt with no formal coalition. The FTPA has already been demonstrated to be easily broken by a Parliament with a cocksure majority govt and opposition parties eager to pretend they're not sh*tting themselves. Should be even easier to break with a true no confidence vote with pissed off DUP and Tory MPs.
Well, time will tell I guess. It's only recently that some people were confidently and eagerly predicting that May would be gone by October.
As I say, it's important not to conflate wishful thinking with fact.
Would you Adam & Eve it? FTBs who have recently completed are now whinging they should get a rebate on the stamp duty ! I assume if it had increased today, they would have been equally eager to pay the extra....
May's departure date is entirely dependent on 3 things
1. Brexit - If the withdrawal bill is defeated that could topple the Government.
2. The Tory Party moving to replace her once it decides on a suitable replacement.
3. The DUP sticking around to ensure the Tories remain in power.
The current thinking (from various banks and think tanks) is the Cabinet will be fatally split over Brexit, May falls and the Government with her sometime in Spring 2018.
The facts are May is leading a minority Government with a confidence and supply deal that is entirely dependent on the whims of the DUP. If they are not happy with the offer the Government puts forward over the border between NI and the ROI in Brexit talks, they will walk away.
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As for the debt side of things -
The OBR has put the loss in selling RBS shares at around £26.2 billion or so.
The "current" thinking. Presumably because the previous thinking that she would be gone by October has proved to be inaccurate.
I didn't realise though that banks were such experts on Government longevity. Who knew.
Are they the same ones that predicted she wouldn't last the summer?
Edit: beaten to it data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7
No, that was mainly political hacks making those predictions. Morgan Stanley is the one making the 2018 prediction - MORGAN STANLEY: Theresa May's government will collapse in 2018, triggering a fresh general election
Usually a Tory Leader makes it to conference, survives that then gets knifed in the back some time later. May won't sack Hammond btw, as he's likely to do a Howe from the back benches and topple her.
Though there is a psychic who claims Brexit will be a success with May seeing a reversal in fortunes, a major terrorist attack will happen on a British motorway and Donald Trump wins a second term in Office in 2020. Then the world ends.
All of which is more likely than Morgan Stanley having a fudgeing Scooby.
And that we would vote to remain in the EU.