Tomorrow's the big day as that's when the current bailout programme ends in Greece and when money to the IMF is due. Events may overtake Europe's political elite.
Odds on they'll be another fudge.data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7
Apparently, it was discuss on the news/papers last night that it can go another month before the IMF have to declare it overdue, in default etc etc
Lagarde has 30 days before she has to inform the IMF's board that Greece is in arrears, though she could inform the board on the day it happens (though board members will already know). In any case she will likely wait until the result of the Greek referendum is clear. Once the IMF board is informed, the IMF will send the Greek Government a cable insisting they pay up. Greece could be ejected from the IMF, but that process takes 2 years or so. It was designed for the age before computers made transactions happen in seconds.
Twitter will do it in about 1/1000th of a second.Progress I suppose.
Then the Bond Markets will react Economist says that 'Grexit' has an 85% chance of happening - Business News - Business - The Independent
Juncker has been trying to pin the blame on the Greeks I see and also ignoring the Economic reality Greece faces. More Austerity means less growth, which means no chance in hell of paying off debts or meeting payment schedules for bailout deals.
I see that stock markets are surging today on the back of a report that Greece is likely to accept the bailout conditions. Might be a little premature until we know the details.
The Greek Government wants debt relief as part of the new bailout, so I doubt it's going anywhere very quickly. Debt relief is probably the last thing Merkel wants given how badly that would play back in Germany. Anyway if the Greeks vote no, then it's a moot issue really. Elections coming up I expect.
The report is saying that they have agreed to the weekend proposals, which I don't think included debt relief. It's breaking news on the BBC website, but little detail at the moment.
The BBC Is slow. Twitter is awash with more details. It appears somebody leaked a memo from the Greek Government, with new proposals. It looks like a gambit to try and force the Troika into accepting the Greek proposals. No debt relief, then I expect the Greek Government will say no to the deal offered and not back down. Why the markets are jumping on this is beyond me, it's probably going to end up on the pile of rejected proposals.
It's a game of who blinks first. The memo -
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CI0kAKNWcAAIcHK.png
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CI0kAETWsAEnHMz.png
Still expecting a fudged deal.
Just cannot see debt relief or the Drachma.Even though both would be better than the fudge.