I broadly agree although do think we are going to see more fragmentation of the two party votes in the 2019/20 election than we did in 2017.The big difference now is the resurgent Lib Dems and the rise of the Brexit Party.
I see where Greg is coming from with his comment reference Labour being so far behind in the polls, but I think there are just so many unknowns at the moment:
- How much will the Lib Dems eat into the Conservative vote?How much will they eat into the Labour vote?
- How much damage will the Brexit Party do to the main two parties?
- How much does Brexit matter to those Labour consitutiencies who voted so overwhelmingly for Brexit?
- What potential coalitions might be able to form after the election?
- Where is the current 'Boris bounce' concentrated?
With all that, it is difficult to see what the outcome of any General Election might be.
These bunch of idiots in parliament have split the country. We were told if you vote to leave, we will leave the single market and customs union there was never any mention of we must have a deal before leaving . The likes of Soubury , Starmer Chuka umunna ect all said if we vote to leave then that's what we must do. Now it's a different tale they have gone back on what they said and want us to stay in the EU. We are now been bullied by Brussels. When has this nation ever been bullied by anyone and then come unstuck never. We call ourselves a democratic countrywow haha . We stick our nose'sinto everyother countrys business such as Venezuela when they vote on there newpresidentand the old president wont leave office and we carn'tsort ourown country. The bunch of muppets want another votelet the people decide they say after getting paid a fortune to do a job . I say we have voted remain lost get over it . Bol☆☆☆☆s to brussels
I can see your points, but disagree with richp007 that may Labour voters will still vote Labour regardless. The polls are showing that to be incorrect.
Our family are Labour voters to the core but even we can’t vote Labour at the moment. My sister especially would have voted for a donkey if it was standing for Labour but even she has turned on them.
There are a lot of unknowns, but just look at how poorly the Tories have handled Brexit (and many other things over the last 3 years). A competent Labour Party and leader should have propelled Labour way ahead in the polls. But they are as far away from the Tories as they have been for a long time.
I'm not a Labour voter, unlikely to become one.
Do you think that would change if Corbyn retires, given Momentums domination at grass roots level?Wouldn't they just elect another extreme left candidate?
Momentum are the one of the main reasons Labour are where they are. They seem almost gleefully ignorant as to how they are destroying a Labour Party that people would want to vote for and turning it into a fringe party that is likely to get beaten by the LibDem’s of all people in a GE if it were held soon.
Time will tell. I don't disagree that some core Labour voters will abandon them, but I guess we'll have to differ on how many. Come election day, I don't think it will be as many as people anticipate.
The only hope I see for Labour going forward to another election is with Corbyn out and Starmer in.
Unless someone else emerges from the shadows.
Disregard Scottish Tories. They are is a pickle because every single seat in Scotland voted remain. Labour are dead here, Lib dems stumble along and will get the usual handful but the tories could be wiped out. Again.
Definitely agree there. Corbyn needs to go for Labour to have any chance at all.
I suggest he hires a digger and gets on with preparing his ditch.
If it's another hung parliament (which it might well be) then nobody wins, as no single party will have gone over the 326 winning post. What matters most in a hung parliament is which party wins more seats than the others and can then carve out, either a coalition or confidence and supply deal with the other partiesto form a government.
I've not closed off the possibility that Johnson can squeak past the 326 seat winning post.
They were much further back in the polls prior to the 2017 election (had May crushing Labour for a generation or more), Corbyn is better on the campaign trail than he is at the dispatch box. Not saying he would win the election.
If it's a hung parliament then the big winners will probably be the SNP, Liberal Democrats and the Brexit Party (who might win a seat or three).