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I've mentioned it on here and on the Oculus forums about mainstream adoption of VR. It's going to be in three stages:
1) The Enthusiast Gamer Stage. These are people such as our good selves who own a high end PC and don't bat an eyelid at building a new rig for $1000/£1000 or don't bat an eyelid at spending 600-1000 dollars or pounds to buy a new graphics card. This is the easiest stage to complete and we're well on the way to doing so. The sweet spot price for Enthusiast Gamer adoption is $600/£600 or less for a headset, but on the flip side this type of gamer on average (because of their rigs) value resolution and eye candy above everything else.
Enthusiast Gamer adoption is only partially complete. We all saw a big increase in sales numbers when the price of the Rift and Vive was cut to 600 notes but it's going to take a while before the Index comes down that low, the Rift S is already under that price and, whilst the HP Reverb is at that price point, it isn't going to sell that well due to being a mid-range headset rather than a high end headset like the Rift S, Vive, Pimax or Index. The Enthusiast Gamer will want decent tracking and most likely won't be buying the Reverb in droves. The Rift S, on the other hand, should prove to be attractive to the less well off Enthusiast Gamer.
2) The Mainstream Gamer Stage. This demographic are the likes of console owners or PC owners that don't have a beefy PC but build or upgrade a PC to play the latest GTA, Assassin's Creed or Elder Scrolls game because their current rig doesn't have enough grunt to play them. They may spend around 400 quid/dollars upgrading their GPU but when building or buying a rig they either go for a gaming laptop or budget desktop. For these type of gamers to adopt PC VR they need those popular mainstream games like the ones I've listed to support VR headsets.
The pricing sweet spot for these people is under $300/£300.
With Sony bringing console VR to PS4 owners and soon to be PS5 owners we're partially through this stage too, but once Microsoft start to do the same we'll start to see more widespread Mainstream Gamer adoption, and once there are enough headsets on heads (10m on consoles and a similar amount of PC VR headsets, so 20m altogether) we'll start to see those sort of mainstream game titles coming to VR. But this is going to take YEARS.
Mainstream PC Gamer adoption is entirely dependant on getting console owners on board first to get those important headset owning numbers up. It WILL happen though. VR gaming is too big and too popular (over 4m PSVR headsets sold and spread between the different headsets there must be around the same amount of PC VR headsets out there too) to die out this time compared to the first two generations in the 80s and 90s.
3) Mainstream Consumer Adoption. This is the big one and the one that Facebook are planning on dominating. This is your average household that isn't necessarily into gaming. There are going to be several key factors that will launch Mainstream Consumer Adoption. Firstly the price sweet spot. This needs to be under $100/£100. We then need to see non-gaming VR applications such as social media, major sports events and films. Once there are around half a billion to a billion headset owners the big Hollywood studios will start to produce VR films and we've already seen the last World Cup and Basketball being broadcast in VR. Soon(ish) we'll see Football, American Football, Boxing, Olympics, Wimbledon etc all being broadcast in VR.
So it's not an unpopular opinion - it's a sensible one. |
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