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You'll deny it, but it's apparent that you're still confusing climate and weather. Climate is average weather, measured over decades. Weather is snow today.
It's all a matter of scale. None of this modelling is anything but highly complex, consuming huge amounts of processing power, and occasional glitches are inevitable. In order of increasing difficulty:
Short-term (up to about a week ahead) weather forecasting has become very accurate;Climate modelling is difficult, but because it's statistical rather than predictive it is possible to get a good idea of what is going to happen.Long-term (up to say a year ahead) weather forecasting is hugely difficult. You're trying to predict a single event (a mild winter, say) using the detailed techniques of weather modelling, and that is simply not possible with today's techniques and computers. Meteorologists got their predictions about last summer and this winter badly wrong. Their main fault, though, was not in the quality of their models (they were never under any delusions about that), but in letting themselves yet again be drawn into making forecasts which they knew damn' well they coudn't sustain.As I have said, the severity of this winter is well within what Climate Change models predict. In the context of your question, the severity of this winter WAS predicted and published. But not specifically in 2010, though. Just that we can expect more frequent and extreme examples of unusual weather events.
Climate Change models do not predict the weather. They predict the average weather over time and area, which is not the same thing at all. Weather models are no use for predicting the climate. |
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