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As a mechanism, it sounds plausible, but when you slot figures in you start to wonder a bit.
I can't find out the inclination of the sun's orbit to the galactic plane, but let's say it's 30deg (it's almost certainly much less than this). Its orbital velocity is about 220km/sec, so along the z-axis it will be 220 x cos60 = 110km/sec. It does wobble a bit as well, so it's not as simple as all that.
Any variation in cosmic ray background would surely be spread over distances measured in light years. At 110km/sec, it will take about 1,400 years to travel 1 light year, and the sun will cross the galactic plane every 115 million years or so.
It seems to me that, even if the effect is real, it is too infrequent to have any significant effect on climate, and even if did its effects would take too long to be noticeable over any period of less than a thousand years or so.
Still, it's plausible, so let's leave it on the list. |
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