Tory Leadership Election

Toko Black

Don’t tell me, he is a neutral

Toko Black

Laugh all you want, but in the end, when it comes to voting for a new leader for the Tories, which direction to take on Brexit or a local council election, when you have more than just two direct choices or a series of run-offs, it is the potential swing voters (neutrals ) that will often determine the winners and losers.

Until you identify directly or in some other way increase your understanding of what alternatives the potential swing voters are for and against, and by what rough margins, they remain essentially 'neutral' to your projections.

If you know they do have a '2nd best' choice you can attempt to predict where their votes will go, however, you can't know if their '2nd best choice' is not as popular with them as the strength of their dislike for a particular 3rd or greater 'option', you can't account for what might happen if it becomes tactical.

Imagine if you supported Boris first, Raab second and Hunt in order of preference, but you are also extremely against JRM.
If Boris was knocked out and it appeared that JRM might win against Raab and Hunt, you might vote for Gove with whom you are somewhat 'neutral' just because he can beat JRM - because you hate JRM more than you like Raab or Hunt.

That sort of data, information and calculations are precisely what the Tories, pundits and observers will be trying to collect and do right now.

rancidpunk

I don't know enough about the candidates to guess who would win or who I would like to win.
The only thing I do know is who I really don't want to win from the information and perceptions I do have ... Boris, JRM, Gove and Hunt in no particular order.
If I did want to chose a candidate that would make the Tories stand the least chance at the next General Election, it would be JRM. I would have picked Boris, but it's a bizarre situation where although he is a buffoon and would make a terrible leader, he might still be popular enough to win an election on the basis of the public's sense of humor - Boris would be the Boaty-McBoat-Face option.

krish

It's like a who's who of most cretinous candidate. Before his 'promotion' I would have said Javed, but he's yet another Tory who's proved wholly incapable when given one of the more prominent posts.

In some ways I'd like to see Mogg, mainly because I think it would make them completely unelectable, but then the alternative becomes just as unpalatable (unless we get a Labour contest too). Boris I think is unelectable internally, but would no doubt be a popular choice publicly; so you never know in politics where personal and political survival ranks much higher than serving the country's best interests.

Sonic67

Boris' peak was zip wire 2012. His star has waned with the public at large - he was a sh*t London Mayor and an even worse FSec, and now he's dipped into the Bannon playbook, he's become rather niche in appeal.

krish

He was elected twice, as a Conservative, when they were on the wane, and in London.

Almost unbelievable.

Toko Black

Yep. Still sh*t though. As I said, he peaked in 2012, which was also when he was re-elected MoL.

nabby

Except Boaty McBoat Face ...

krish

This is pretty funny, and before some members on here complain that the quotes are false or misquoted, get a sense of humour please

                                                                       

Rasczak

Might put a tenner on Hunt at 3-1 and a fiver on Gove at 5-1