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It was 4 million voting for Ukip that lead Cameron to promise a referendum.
He wanted to get into power, lots of marginal were at risk and if he got those voters back he could defeat what was going to be a Labour/SNP coalition.
It paid off in that his promise of "vote Conservative, get a referendum, you won't get one with UKIP," worked.
Despite the polls he did get into power. The next stage was getting a good deal from the EU to then get a favourable referendum result.
A lot of polls supported the idea of being in the EU if there was some reform or a good deal. Cameron came back with little.
Point is, even in a two party system there is marginals and they can hold the balance of power.
I'll have to find the figures, but in the last election there was so many marginals that a few thousand voting the other way in the right places would have put Labour in power. |
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