Brexit odds

S8484

I'm slightly confused as to why no deal Brexit odds are so good. A deal seems very unlikely and Boris Johnson has repeatedly said and seems adamant that we will leave on 31st October. He'll look very stupid if we don't the way he's been going on. He has repeatedly stated that he'll find a way to leave however that is. Even if he sends an extension letter followed by a secondary letter asking to cancel the 1st extension letter (which is now being reported). He's adamant! Therefore, why are the bookies offering to more than triple your return by betting for a no deal Brexit? Is Boris simply talking rubbish and not caring a less about making himself look completely stupid because to me that's not how it seems. By the way, I don't actually want a no deal scenario I'm just interested in the odds being offered. Thanks.

Cliff

Well, a no deal Brexit is not the first choice of the UK. But more so with the EU . They will/are going to great lengths to make sure it doesn’t happen.
They will be seriously affected. At the moment we have a huge trade imbalance with the EU. Imagine if we were to buy elsewhere?
So the chances are, it will be a deal or remain (hopefully not).

Greg Hook

If the bookies are giving high odds on a no deal bet, then chances are their are confident a no deal won't happen.

One bookie site has some amusing bet options on their politics section.

For example 14/1 on Avocados being officially the first item to be rationed by the UK Government. 2/1 on fuel.

You can even bet on who will leave their job first, Bojo or the Man U manager.

richp007

Seeing long odds on No Deal are likely to be relevant relating only to 31st October deadline.

I'd expect shorter odds on it still happening at any unspecified point.

Never a bad place to gauge some true Brexit information though. The bookies are likely to have better sources than the media!

S8484

Ok thanks. I just find it interesting that even if you were to hedge your bets between leaving with a deal on or before October 31st and leaving without a deal on or before October 31st, you could still make a nice profit. Even this morning Andrea Leadsom was saying that we'll definitely be leaving before November with or without a deal. This isn't what the odds suggest however! Confusing!

Greg Hook

What site is offering those odds on leaving or not leaving?
I can't see any bookie offering a simple yes/no bet where you can make money simply by betting on both?

S8484

You can hedge your bets and still make a profit on Paddy Power. Only of there's no extension though!

GadgetObsessed

I don't really see that the EU are more dependent upon UK/EU trade than we are.

Even though we import more from the EU than we export to the EU, proportionately any impact to EU UK trade would hit the UK far worse than the EU.

The EU's exports to the UK are valued at £341bn which is around 2.8% of the EUs GDP.
The UK's exports to the EU are valued at £274bn which is around 12.7% of the UKs GDP.

The UK's trade deficit with the EU is £67bn - which is around 0.5% of the EUs GDP.

The EU accounts for around 44% of the UKs exports.
The UK accounts for around 8% of the exports of EU countries.

So overall the UK is around 5 times more dependent upon trade with the EU than the EU is.

These figures primarily reflect how much smaller the UK economy is in comparison with the rest of the EU. The UK GDP is around $2.8 trillion while that of the EU, excluding the UK, is around $16tn. EU economy is around 6 times larger than that of the UK.

The UK is significant for some German companies. For example, the UK is BMWs 4th largest market (after China, US and Germany) and accounts for almost 10% of BMWs market.

Greg Hook

Ah I see! So not a sure bet.

Cliff

I would use the word 'dependent'. But with our markets changing to other countries and our EU monetary contribution gone, the EU will certainly do everything to make sure there is a deal. Their usual ploy is  rerun of the referendum.
Interestingly they have befriended John Bercow...
(washing machine MP No2)