As it stands now Scorpio will not have exclusive games.
Devs will not care about pushing games that have a small audience.Even if there was aPs5 years ahead of expectations games would be multplat because Devs follow the money not the shiniest game competition.
What games won't run on it?
The Scorpio will have 'exclusive' games - at least exclusive to the Scorpio as far as Xbox consoles are concerned. The XB1 and XB1s will NOT be having VR and its already been confirmed that VR is coming to Scorpio. Some VR games are in development with Scorpio versions planned so it will get games that will NOT be on XB1. Its PR to say that the Scorpio is just a 4k XB1 because MS want to sell the XB1 but they already said they want to give developers time to create experiences for it. Games like FH3, Gears 4 etc could easily come to Scorpio if they released this year as they are developed with 4k in mind for PC's, just scaled down for console.
There is NO way that games are going to be limited and restricted by the much inferior hardware that's already struggling with games now. Games like BF1 are already at 720/60 and games like Dark Souls 3 at 900/30. If they get any more complex/bigger etc as they are likely too with developers trying to outdo what came before and have all the new architecture (the FinFet chips) and new API's (Vulkan, DX12) etc, then its inevitable that games will not run on these consoles.
I can't see MS saying to a developer, we have a console that can run this game but you are not releasing it unless you release a sub 720/30 version or butchered version (like BO3) just to release on the Scorpio - its JUST PR because MS want you to keep buying the XB1 rather than to wait.
As for Sony, they are in a similar position except they specified that the Neo is and will be just a PS4. Any game that can't run well enough on PS4, will not come to Neo - no extras, no features, no bonuses or Neo exclusive DLC either.
I don't know what games specifically - 2 years is a bloody long time in gaming. There are VR games that will come to Oculus and Vive - maybe even Scorpio that can't come to PSVR because the PS4 doesn't have the power. Most games already require much more powerful PC's to run (just look at the minimum specs). The Hardware is equivalent to a 5-6yr old 'average' (not high) spec PC. You don't see minimum spec Jaguar 1.6ghz CPU, Radeon 7870 GPU - the specs of a PS4!! In 2years time I can't see 'every' game running on this let alone 3yrs from now. Your mobile phone will be more powerful than your PS4 bu then!
You have a lot of opinions backed up by exactly nothing as far as I can see.
Time will tell!! Quote me on this in 2yrs time...
Having been a gamer for 40yrs, its apparent. Can you honestly say you think the XB1/PS4 have the hardware to last 3 years? Do you think developers will want to have sub 720/30 or games with visual effects scaled back even further?
Its hardly opinion about the Scorpio re VR as that was announced during E3 and the XB1 certainly doesn't have the power to run a headset and VR games to the required minimum standards to alleviate the issues of sickness. Nothing has been mentioned with bringing VR to XB1 so therefore the Scorpio will have unique games and features not available on the XB1. Do you want me to find the E3 video where Phil Spencers says about VR and why its not out for another year (to give developers time to create experiences for it) and yet ALL games shown at E3 and coming to PC will be 4k enabled - they even showed FH3 running at 4k on PC during E3 so developers already have 4k 'ready' games - even all the multi-platform games run at 4k on PC. The Neo can receive 'patches' to boost performance on games already released so the information (resolution details etc) are already in the game - Doom for example that runs at 4k on PC has a similar file size to the console version for example. In fact most games are similar in file size regardless of resolution.
Whilst I may not have insider information on every game, its inevitable that games will continue to advance rather than stagnate. The architecture of the 14nm chips are designed with the new API's in mind - as well as VR so its inevitable that as developers push development, its going to be increasingly difficult to optimise these for much older technology. Its why PC games require higher minimum specs each year
Like I said, come back in 2yrs and see if I am correct or tell me I was wrong!
I have been using this forum for a few years, so I am sure I will be here in another two.
I'll put it in the diary.
PS5?
2018 - 10% chance
2019 - 60%
2020 - 20%
Later/never - 10%
Personally I think its more like
Q4 2018 - 55% chance
Q4 2019 - 44% chance
2020/never - 1% chance
As I said, I think this will be determined more by the struggles of the developers running games on the PS4 more so than as a response to the extra power of the Scorpio. The only thing I see stopping Sony from bringing out a console until 2019 will be technological developments - things like holding out for a specific piece of hardware. Because the 'Neo' is going to be held back (to a degree) by the PS4, its still limited by what games will run on the inferior hardware - including VR games.
Games have been hampered by the CPU - even within a year, Sony had to unlock access to the 7th core. Suckerpunch and a lot of other developers have been quite critical of the CPU and its the main cause of bottleneck issues.
Whilst I do think the PS4 is better equipped to last a bit longer in terms of delivering a consistent gaming experience than the XB1, I struggle to see it lasting 6yrs let alone 7yrs . Its not like last gen where developers had a 'learning' curve to understand the consoles architecture. I would be very surprised if Sony do manage to stretch out this generation to 6 years
I think 2018/19/20 all have a equal chance of happening and it all depends if/what AMD and the chip foundries come through on with the tech. Even the mighty Intel have changed from Tick-Tock to Process-Architecture-Optimization because its taking longer to develop smaller processes.
Consoles need to both increase performance to warrant people upgrading but also come in at 150-200W all in. We'll probably end up with a Neo 2 that is 2-3X Neo and PS4 being phased out.
Personally I think this would be unlikely. Obviously it would depend on how many PS4's are in circulation and being used regularly. After issuing reassurance and saying that the 'Neo' is just a PS4 and that it will not get any 'exclusive' games/features/DLC etc that will not be on the base PS4, I think it would be wrong to bring out a 'Neo 2' in effect. I can't see Sony back-tracking and releasing games that are 'minimum required Neo'. I think PS4 owners would be rightly annoyed if the Neo did get software/features etc that are not on the base version and I also think they would be rightly annoyed if games performed or looked so bad just to release on Neo too.
I do think this is more the way MS are going with their Hardware - more like PC's. I can see MS bringing out Scorpio 2 3-4years after Scorpio (most likely 4yrs).
Because the Neo is restricted to the PS4 generation, I think that's why we will see PS5 around Q4 2018. I think Sony will be able to deliver a console that's more powerful than Scorpio but also one that is not tied to the PS4 generation - one that can have 'exclusive/unique' software (games that don't have to run on inferior hardware). Software is usually what determines a consoles life Sony will know what's in development and whether or not their PS4 can handle it. Regardless of how powerful (or not) the Neo is, it is still limited by the capability of the PS4. I also think that Sony will factor in a 'cross-over' phase - a phase where both console co-exist and get a lot of the same releases but as time goes on the PS4 gets less and less of these.
One of the major pluses of Neo for developers is that it means they don't have to start all over again with the software. I think it more likely Sony will stick to this iterative model unless it tanks.
Cutting off PS4 also means cutting off Neo (because it is a PS4!) I can't see owners of Neo being too pleased if after just two years PS5 comes out rendering their £350console obsolete.
I love me some cutting edge tech but the reality means it is unsustainable to keep starting afresh and now they are trying a different approach. Being x86 means there is no need for a "fresh start".
Just keep bumping the specs by 2-3 times every 2-3 years and phase out the oldest model always leaving two. Base and high-end. Simple!