fluxo Publish time 26-11-2019 02:33:27

The GDP per head growth figures are pretty disappointing. It looks as though we may have lost about a decade of growth in that respect. I don't know whether migration has been a cause of that. It's possible.

This is an interesting chart from The Economist:

                                                                                                                                        /proxy.php?image=https://www.dropbox.com/s/on870bovzbdpsjd/File%2029-08-2016%2C%2017%2032%2023.png?dl=1&hash=c78abf39d12d471da08d2aafe0a09b1b       

Maybe it's just a statistical quirk, but it looks like the upper line starts tracking just above the middle line towards the right. A bit like a piece of string draped over the rightmost peaks and troughs.

domtheone Publish time 26-11-2019 02:33:27

I'd be amazed if anyone would suggest that it's not a significant factor.

nheather Publish time 26-11-2019 02:33:28

Migration is not a bad thing as such.

The problem that the UK has is that immigration is predominently unskilled or low-skilled labour, whilst emigration is predominently skilled labour.

This means that we are experiencing a brain-drain, losing people who typically generate good GDP contributions, high tax payers and low benefit claiments whilst gaining people who are the opposite.

Cheers,

Nigel

Will21st Publish time 26-11-2019 02:33:29

from the look of things we will indeed overtake Germany as Europe's biggest economy.

fluxo Publish time 26-11-2019 02:33:30

The connection between this post and the rest of the thread is tenuous, to say the least, but anyway:

I was looking for deficit statistics and I found this report based on numbers from the ONS & OBR:

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05745/SN05745.pdf

Well, it's all a bit curious. Take a look at page 6 for example. There are some %GDP and accompanying absolute amounts in £bn. So it should be possible to calculate the GDP in each case. Let's try that for row 1, labelled with financial year numbers 1987/88.

The public set net debt is given as £167.4 bn. That is supposedly 31.0% of GDP. So the GDP should be £167.4/0.31 bn = £540 bn. So far so good. Now let's try the same thing for the gross debt interest payments. These are given as £18.4 bn or 3.6% of GDP. Therefore, the GDP figure ought to be £18.4/0.036 bn = £511 bn. It's a different amount!

And going back to the public sector net debt again, but this time for 1988/89, we find the GDP is equal to £153.7/0.256 bn = £600 bn, which is 11.1% higher than the 1987/88 figure. Obviously, the economy didn't grow 11% in one year. So that looks iffy.

What on earth is going on with these figures?

EarthRod Publish time 26-11-2019 02:33:30

Stats are a fairly reliable indicator, maybe even a rough indicator, but not to be taken too seriously - a bit like polls.

Depending on how the framework is defined will determine the statistical results. Something as complicated as an economy's debt/GDP/deficit etc must make pinning down the framework a little difficult.

thegeby Publish time 26-11-2019 02:33:31

This is probably the best measure of economic performance. I wouldn't vouch for any of the particular data sets, but they are trying to look at the right thing.

List of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita - Wikipedia

(I don't think any of you believe that 1973 was a great year for growth, but it was spectacular for inflation data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAIAAAAAAAP///yH5BAEAAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAIBRAA7 )
Pages: 1 [2]
View full version: Euro/US GDP Charts